One of the I-told-you-so’s came from The Seattle Times’ Geoff Baker, in regards to the Mariners passing on Michael Bourn, who is hitting well this season. He has posted a .364 wOBA and 131 wRC+ this year, which have helped attribute to his 0.9 fWAR to this point. Seeing Bourn play and his team trounce the M’s gave Baker the opportunity to criticize Jack and company for failing to do more in the offseason.

Baker said this of the situation:

 But the Bourn thing, for me, is a classic example of how this rebuilding process has played out for the Mariners. It’s taken a long time to get where we are and I do think we could have seen some better baseball a bit quicker had the Mariners spent some dough this winter and in prior ones to shore-up where they were lacking.

He was a big Bourn advocate all offseason, probably more than he should have been. He may have overstated his value a little. But he is right: Bourn would have helped this team. He may not be hitting the way he is now, but he would be a clear improvement over what the Mariners have going on right now.

The thing is, he is right for the wrong reasons. Baker does not seem like a sabermetrically-inclined guy, so I doubt he likes Bourn for the 6 WAR he posted last year. I doubt he likes him for his 22.3 UZR last year. Heck, he may not even like him for his 10% walk rate. He probably likes him because he is fast, plays defense, and is generally thought of as one of the better leadoff hitters in the game.

But that doesn’t take anything away from Bourn. He is a valuable player, as seen in the 6 WAR I mentioned above. However, there is another problem with Baker saying what he did. This is a team that has suffered a lot of injuries that have forced them to play certain guys more than they planned to. It’s not like they came into the year with Raul Ibanez, Jason Bay and Endy Chavez penciled in as a time-share in left field. Chavez wasn’t even on the opening day roster, and Raul and Bay were meant to be 4th and 5th guys, pinch hitters, and spot-start DH’s. But when you lose Michael Saunders for a month, Michael Morse for a week, and then Franklin Gutierrez for eternity, plans change.

My first thought when I read Baker’s article was “You are wrong Geoff Baker.” This team didn’t need a defensive minded player and speed-only guy. But then I realized that he was only partially wrong, as stated above. And I was also partially, or mostly, wrong. People tend to put players into certain categories based on what they do and who they are. Bourn is the speedy leadoff hitter. Morse is the bat-0nly “outfielder”, et cetera.

Even us all-knowing sabermetricans do this at times. We look at a team that lacks power, and think they need to add power and nothing else. We forget something very important. Value is Value. It really doesn’t matter that much what kind of value that is. Sure, if the M’s had their choice of a 6 win player like Bourn, or a 6 win power hitter, they would probably take the latter. But 6 wins are 6 wins, and value is value. Bourn would have made this team a lot better than they are now. Only one of Morse and Kendrys Morales would be here, as Bourn would have replaced the other, which would be an improvement.

So if you want to criticize the front office for not getting Bourn and settling instead for Morse, then by all means. It is a very valid criticism, one worth roughly 4.5 wins. But don’t pull a Geoff and just say “this is a slow team. Bourn is the opposite of slow, and thus would make them better,” while simultaneously saying missing out on Swisher was not that big of a deal for whatever reason. That is not why Bourn is valuable. It is part of it, sure. But a team doesn’t need speed to win. Just like they don’t need power. You want as much of both as you can get, but in the end, the goal should be value in any way shape or form possible. I repeat, value is value. It may sound simple, but everyone seems to forget. I forget. You forget. Geoff Baker forgets. Don’t forget anymore.

In hindsight, signing Bourn looks like it would have been a good move. But hindsight is 20-20. Right now, it looks like a good thing Josh Hamilton snubbed Seattle. But most people wanted him here more than anything. So I am not letting this realization change my opinion of Bourn. Because there are still some problems with him, that do stem from the kind of player he is.

There is an exception to the “value is value” mantra I am using. Sometimes, the means by which a player accumulates value can depreciate, thus lowering the player’s future value. That is “I am smarter than you language” for speed goes away fast (pun intended). A player’s legs are usually the first things to go as they get older, and that happens to be the biggest part of Bourn’s game.

Bourn is 30 years old, which is generally referred to as the turning the point in a players career. And when a player relies on that as much as Bourn does, it can be scary to commit tons of money to him. When the legs so, so does most of the value. It is not guaranteed that he loses his speed soon, but it is probably pretty likely, and it will affect him more than a Carl Crawford who can fall back on his career .442 SLG%. According to Baseball Reference, Bourn got almost half of his value from his defense last year, and that is a little scary as he gets older.

Then, there are easy comparisons to be made between him and Chone Figgins. And they go past the fact that they are both fast.

Take a look at their respective lines through their contact years, which is 2009 for Figgins and 2012 for Bourn:

It think when most people hear this comparison, they write it off. Well, turns out they probably shouldn’t. As it happens, Figgins was actually better before signing with the Mariners than Bourn was before signing this year. Their WAR’s are close because Bourn gets a boost for being a center fielder, so their overall value is much closer. But it terms of offensive production, which is what we are focusing on, Figgins has the edge.

Then, if we focus in on the final pre-contract season, Figgins still tops him, with a 116 wRC+ and 6.6 WAR, compared to 104 wRC+ and 6.1 WAR for Bourn. Not a huge difference, but it is there.

And that is not to say that any of this is guaranteed. It is far from a perfect comparison, as Desmond DeChone Figgins was almost two years older when he signed his contract than Bourn was. Plus, Figgins didn’t really lose his speed, he just forgot how to hit. Bourn might not face the same fate, but he very well could. We just don’t know, and that is the main concern.

I did not intend for this to be a Geoff Baker bash article. I respect him and think he puts out a lot of good content. But I just disagree with some of his ideas here, and thought it set up a good opportunity to make this point.

Bourn would have been an upgrade to this team. No doubt about it. But it isn’t because he brings “the crucial speed element” that every team needs. It is because he is a valuable player, period. The team has been forced to play Raul and Bay more than I think they planned, and Bourn blows them out of the water. An extra 5-6 wins can make a big difference. But that just this year, and you have to consider the future as well. He is a speed-first player, and that trait does not last forever. He could have come back to haunt them in a couple years, and another Figgins is not what the M’s need.

October 3, 2012; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Atlanta Braves center fielder Michael Bourn (24) steals second base ahead of the throw to Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Josh Harrison (5) during the first inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Michael Bourn is still a free agent, and he’s still listed as someone that the Seattle Mariners are interested in. According to reports, Bourn is not interested in playing for the Texas Rangers, but he is interested in playing for either the Mariners or the New York Mets.

After being shunned by Justin Upton, it’s nice to be wanted. At least, it’s nice to have the rumor that we’re a favorite for Bourn. While the Mariners have been picking up some sluggers (well at least some guys who have been great hitters in the past, anyway), Bourn would be a nice round-out addition to the team. Sure he’s another aging player (he’s 30), but he’s also a guy who can get on base and get around the bases (276 stolen bases in his career).

On the one hand, it’s rumored that the Mariners are a favorite when it comes to this ball player making a decision about where he will go. On the other hand, he rejected the Atlanta Braves’ offer of 13.3 million dollars for one year in order to become a free agent. Rumor also has it that Bourn has received offers of up to $80 million for five years. If the Mariners are going to make a move, they will need to have some dollar signs behind that move in order to be successful.  (more…)

Thing is, talk is cheap. Now, I am confident Jack Z is doing everything within his power to add a bat. I can picture him running around Nashville like a crazy person, phone in hand, knocking on peoples doors, some that have nothing to do with the MLB. Unfortunately, activity does not always guarantee success. We all know how hard it is to lure hitters here, and that Jack and company will have to overpay to get someone here.

But at least we know he is trying, and that’s all we can ask for.

There has already been a signing, but it’s probably not what you would hope for. It looks as though the Mariners have agreed to sign Jason Bay to a one-year deal, reportedly for around $1 million.

I am pretty neutral on this deal. I am all for reclamation projects, but I am not a fan of the guaranteed, major league contract that he was given. I am not sure that he has a chance to be much better than Casper Wells, who is the current 4th outfielder.

If other moves, hopefully for a real hitter, are made, then I have no problem with this move. But if he is the big signing for the offseason, I won’t be too happy.

Anyway, back to the rumors.

Jon Morosi reports that if the Nationals are able to re-sign 1st baseman Adam Laroche, that they could trade Mike Morse to Seattle, who are showing interest.

I am a fan of a move for Morse, but I don’t feel that he is the instant fix either. He has played mostly left field for Washington, but is not very good at there, and fits better as a 1st baseman who you can throw in a corner outfield spot if you need to.

There’s no doubt in my mind that he can hit however, as seen in his .303/.360/.550, .390 wOBA, 148 wRC+ line in 2011. That was his only full season, as he battled injuries last year, and didn’t get a ton of playing time in 2010. But even in those seasons he put up  .340 wOBA/113 wRC+ and .377 wOBA/134 wRC+ in those seasons respectively.

I think he makes more sense coming in with a Swisher, Hamilton or Upton (who I will talk about later on), but by himself wouldn’t be too bad either. Washington is said to be seeking bullpen help, so if he could be had for one of Carter Capps or Stephen Pryor and a prospect not named James, Danny, Nick or Taijuan, I think Jack should jump all over it.

Will the Mariners pick up Josh Hamilton in the winter meetings? Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

John Heyman reported that the Mariners are still in on Josh Hamilton, but like everyone else, they prefer a shorter deal.

Hamilton is a guy who has grown on me. That may sound strange considering I am talking about a superstar, but I was really worried about him. And in many ways I still am. I am not a fan of him on more than a 5 year deal, and for no more than $25 million a year.

But I am now hoping the Mariners offer him just that. It is obvious now that you are going to have to overpay no matter what. So you might as well overpay for a star. Id rather give an MVP 5/125 than someone like the recently signed Shane Victorino 3/$39 million.

I also think that if you are going to go for it, then you should get another guy like Morse in addition to Hamilton. As great as he is, I think this team may be a little more than one bat away from competing, especially if the Rangers trade for Upton.

There has also been a lot of speculation from various places that the Mariners are not only in on Nick Swisher, but may be the favorite.

It makes a lot of sense to me. Swisher is an above average hitter, and can play both right field and 1st, which are our biggest holes on the team. He is a guy that is going to give you a .265/.365/.475 line year in and year out. Now, he is turning 32 this year, and would most likely command a 4-5 year deal, so its probably necessary to assume a small decline from that as time passes.

But his ability to draw walks and get on base is the best part of his game, and that’s very encouraging for aging guys. Plate discipline is something that tends to stick around, unlike speed and things of that nature. Even if he isn’t the best contact guy, he should continue to get on base, and provide at least 20-25 home run power for the next few years.

That, combined with the fact that he plays slightly above average defense at the team’s two weakest positions make him my favorite option. Like Hamilton, it is always best to get another bat through trade to come along with him, but he would be okay by himself.

If he can come here a 4/62, I think he makes the most sense out of anyone.

Rumors of interest in Michael Bourn have also begun to surface recently.

He does not make much sense to me at all. He is essentially Franklin Gutierrez mixed with 2010 Chone Figgins, and that’s not an exaggeration. He is one of the best defensive center fielders in the league (Guti) and gets most of his offensive production from his speed and decent on base  ability.

If you compare Bourn’s 2012 to Figgins’s 2009, or the year before he signed here, it is scarily similar. But what’s even scarier is that Figgins was better. In 2012 Bourn hit .273/.348/.391 compared to .298/.395/.393 for Figgins. Figgins also bested him in WAR at 6.9 vs 6.4.

There is no guarantee that Bourn follows the same path, but I would argue that it is likely. Players that rely heavily, or solely in Bourn’s case, on speed, tend to decline. I don’t think that is what Seattle needs. They need bats, and Bourn really doesn’t fit that mold, especially at $15 million a year like he will get.

If he were to come in with Upton or Butler, then I can see it. But even then, I don’t think he would be too much of an upgrade over what we have. It would be a poor use of money, and I think we would see Figgins 2.0.

Finally, there are still some Justin Upton rumors, but they have cooled down, at least involving the Mariners. It looks like the Diamondbacks and Indians are looking for an Upton-Asdrubal Cabrera trade, but need another team, or three.

So far it’s sounding like the Royals, Rangers and Rays are those other three teams and there are reports that deals have already been put into place. It is looking very unlikely that Upton will come to Seattle.

However, there have been reports that Seattle is interested in shortstop Dee Gordon. The only, and I mean ONLY, logical explanation for that is that Jack is trying to put together a package for Upton, knowing that Arizona wants a shortstop.

The problem with that is that Dee Gordon is awful. He is a below average hitter now, and most likely will never be better than average. That, combined with his below average defense make for a very invaluable player. Without his speed, he would not be in the bigs.

The Mariners have no use for him with a better version of him in Brenden Ryan, and Nick Franklin is not too far away.

Its a confusing and frustrating time. It is particularly frustrating to me because a lot of the rumors we are hearing are not very good moves as is.  A move for Gordon is a waste. Bourn is not valuable to a team looking for power. We just have to stick it out and hope for the best.