Sep. 29, 2012; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Justin Upton (10) stands at bat during the game against the Chicago Cubs in the first inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Stewart-USA TODAY Sports

Ultimately, Justin Upton had put the Seattle Mariners on his no-trade list, so his prospects of becoming a Mariner were really low. When Upton was traded to the Atlanta Braves, his package consisted of:

• Seven players were involved.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks received Martin Prado, Randall Delgado, Zeke Spruill, Nick Ahmed, and Brandon Drury.
• The Atlanta Braves received Justin Upton and Chris Johnson.
• Upton’s contract is good from 2010 until 2016 when he will become a free agent. The remaining contract time is for $38.5 million dollars.

That’s a pretty expensive trade. Sure, if the Mariners had been able to pull it off, they might not be scrambling to figure out who exactly will wind up on that 40-man roster for opening day. But carrying out Upton’s contract may have broke them. This way, too, he is able to join his brother on the same team. Playing with his brother was also probably part of the appeal for him to be cool with the Diamondbacks-Braves deal.  (more…)

1) The Diamondbacks are still shopping Justin Upton.

2) The Diamondbacks lost a major pitching prospect in Trevor Bauer.

3) The Diamondbacks have a lot of outfielders, and they don’t like Justin Upton very much.

4) The Mariners need a good outfielder.

Jennifer Stewart-USA TODAY Sports

A major problem, as cited here, in working a trade with Upton is that the Mariners are on his no-trade list. I was once confused about no-trade lists, but I believe I have been straightened out. A no-trade clause, in this case, simply means that the Dbacks must have Upton’s approval before trading him to the Mariners. The clause may have been there because Upton doesn’t like rain, doesn’t like pitchers’ parks, doesn’t like coffee…who knows? But if he’s sick enough of Arizona—and he has heard of the fence transplantation in SafeCo as well and something closer to a temperate summer—then perhaps he’d okay a trade to Seattle. Probably not likely, but worth exploring in the Sodomojo pages, nonetheless.

The deal would likely include a major pitching prospect (to replace Bauer), and something else fun, but that’s not what I’m here to talk about. I’m here to talk about the powerful force known as regression to the mean. Dave Cameron alluded to it in an article over at Fangraphs, but maybe some specific examples can advance the discussion.

The biggest knock on Justin Upton comes from his home/road splits. The guy has been a monster at home in the friendly Phoenix atmosphere (138 wRC+), but he’s essentially been Ty Wigginton on the road (96 wRC+). Over the last ten seasons, that 42 wRC+ difference ranks him third most polarized among all batters with at least 1000 plate appearances both home and away. In other words, Justin Upton is an extreme case when it comes to splits.

Let’s take a break to play the Regression to the Mean Game. Heard of it? I’m going to take the best and worst 10 batters from 2011 in terms of a few different stats, and then see how they fared in 2012. Let’s start with batting average.

Besides Joey Votto, every single player declined, or in the case of Victor Martinez, did not play. The average decline was 9.5%.

Now let’s use wRC+ to check for regression in the opposite direction. In other words, did the worst hitters in 2011 rebound? Qualified players only, of course.

Ignoring the fact that two Mariners are on the list (and a third would have been if Figgins had been qualified), again we see a lot of regression—this time in an upward direction. The overall regression back up was 35.1%! This isn’t exactly a biased sample either. There’s not a majority of young players or injured players in the sample, where we would have projected obvious improvement.

There are probably many theories as to why extreme players regress. I’m sure psychology plays some role, for instance. But I believe the best explanation for regression is simply the unsustainable nature of extreme play. Whether you want to call it chance, randomness, or luck (or bad luck), it takes more than one’s skill level to perform extremely, in my opinion.

We notice Upton’s splits because they represent an outlier among baseball players. We can go back and try to explain that it’s caused by his home ball park, or maybe his swing, or that he loathes airplanes, etc. But as with any metric in baseball, it would be foolish to assume that Upton’s stats are representative of such an extreme inability to hit outside Chase Field. Just having a hitter-friendly home ballpark doesn’t explain it all.

We saw that Miguel Cabrera won the batting title in 2011. We know Miguel Cabrera is a good hitter. We should still have expected regression in the following the season.

We see that Upton is among the three most extreme players when it comes to home/away splits. We know Upton should have distinguished splits, playing in Chase. We should still expect regression in the 2013 season.

In Upton’s case specifically, we should probably assume he’s not as bad on the road as his 96 wRC+ suggests, and perhaps he’s not quite as good at home as his 138 wRC+ suggests. If regression is up to something, as usual, then Upton is not likely to move to Seattle and continue hitting at a .250/.325/.406 clip on the road. Maybe in SafeCo, but not on the road.

The trade is unlikely, but I would welcome Upton with open arms. He’s good, he fills a major need in the organization, he’s 25, and he’s signed through 2015 on a team-friendly deal.

Stanton in action. Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s start with Stanton. There is a lot to like about this young outfielder. He just turned 23 years old last November, and has already hit 93 homeruns in his career. There is not another young hitter in baseball that has his kind of power.

As a 22 year-old last year, he played in just 123 games but still hit 37 homeruns which ranked seventh in all of baseball. He also had the third highest OPS in baseball behind just Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Braun. Mike Trout was the only other player 24 years old or younger to reach 30 homeruns in 2012.

While this is quite bold, Giancarlo Stanton might possess once in a generation type power. Let’s compare him to Barry Bonds and Seattle’s own Ken Griffey Jr., both of whom started their historic major league careers at very young ages.

Here are the numbers from the first three seasons of each of their careers.

Due to past failures, many Mariner fans are afraid to invest in right-handed power hitters. However, I would not be concerned about the right-handed Stanton coming to Safeco Field for two reasons: 1) The fences are coming in which will help remedy the problem. 2) Mike Stanton has already succeeded in other bad hitters’ parks.

Sunlife Stadium, where he played his first two years, and Marlins Park, where he played last year, are both pitchers parks, but Stanton excelled anyway. In Marlins park, which measures 340 feet down the left field line, 384 to the left-center gap, and 420 to center field, he averaged a homerun every 15.4 at bats last season. There is no reason to worry about his ability to hit in Safeco Field.

Due to his young age and immense talent, there will be hefty price tag on Stanton, but the Mariners are one of just a few teams that have the farm system capable of pulling off such a deal. Bringing the Miami outfielder to Seattle would almost certainly require Taijuan Walker and several other top prospects. I am a big fan of Walker, but a ridiculous, and more importantly, a proven talent like Stanton is worth Walker.

In the past I have said that Stanton is one of just a couple guys in baseball I would even consider trading Felix for, and I don’t believe that Walker will ever be quite as successful as Felix, so it makes sense to concede Walker in this case.

Larry Stone predicted that a deal would require Walker, Hultzen, Franklin, Gabriel Guerrero, and rising star Kyle Seager. This seems like too much to me, mainly because of Seager’s involvement. If Seager could somehow be replaced with someone like Alex Liddi, Vinnie Catricala, or Stefen Romero, I would be pretty happy with the deal, although giving up Walker and Hultzen would be difficult.

A package of Walker, Paxton, Franklin, Liddi, and a few lesser prospects would be excellent for Seattle. JJ has some of his own expectations for what acquiring the 23 year-old would require, but only time will tell which expectation is most accurate.

Justin Upton. Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The next player that the Mariners are connected with in trade talks is Justin Upton. Surprise surprise. We made it just three days into 2013 before Justin Upton trade rumors resurfaced. At 25 years old, Upton is also immensely talented and is also better rounded than Stanton. Upton has legitimate 5-tool talent and could still be improving. However, he is not quite the dominating force on the baseball field that Stanton is and is also much less reliable.

In 2012 he hit 18 homeruns, stole 17 bases, and posted a triple slash of .280/.355/.430. His previous season was much more impressive when he accumulated 31 long balls, 21 stolen bases, and a line of .289/.369/.529.

However, these numbers have been aided by the hitter friendly Chase Field. Take a second to analyze Upton’s home/road split over the course of his career.

Unlike Stanton, Upton has not had tremendous success in difficult hitters’ ballparks.

The price tag on Upton is a bit difficult to predict. Considering that Upton trade talks have brewed for years without a deal ever being completed, it seems fair to assume that Arizona has very high expectations for a return on the young outfielder.

A few months ago, it looked like Nick Franklin would be necessary in any deal with Arizona, but the three-way trade between Arizona, Cleveland, and Cincinnati that brought Didi Gregorius to Arizona eliminated their need for Franklin.

Taijuan Walker would likely be at the center of any deal and would be accompanied by other prospects such as Paxton, Maurer, or possibly still Franklin. A Potential package might look like Walker, Paxton, and Brad Miller. If a deal arises that excludes Walker and instead includes Hultzen, it would be far preferable.

Ethier. Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

The final bat that the Mariners are said to be interested in is Andre Ethier of the Dodgers. At 30 years old, Ethier does not have the future of Stanton or Upton, and does not have their offensive stature either. Over the past three seasons, Ethier has averaged 18 homeruns per season with a slash line of .289/.361/.459. Currently, he has a decent bat, but he’s not a difference maker, and he certainly won’t swing an impact bat by 2015 or in the years after that when Seattle will hopefully be making runs into the playoffs. Trading for Ethier isn’t as practical for the future of Seattle.

The five years remaining on Ethier’s contract makes the Dodger outfielder less attractive as well. He will earn an average of 16.5 million per year until he is 35 years old. It was a bad contract for the Dodgers to agree to, and it would be an even worse contract for Seattle to take on.

It would seem unwise to bring in a 30 year-old player who they will have to give nearly 17 million for the next five years in exchange for average run production.

Although not as talented as other trade options, Ethier will also be less costly to trade for. It would probably take a top pitching prospect, but I would not surrender any more than James Paxton or Brandon Maurer in a one for one deal.