Here’s what the rotation is likely to look like come April (with no roster changes):

Obviously if we don’t get another pitcher this off season, everyone bumps up and Blake Beavan takes over the #5 spot. Or, as Joel mentioned, perhaps Tom Wilhelmsen could be asked to bring out the hammer for five or six innings at a time. While we’re waiting for any one of the “Big Three” to be ready, I don’t think we necessarily need to throw away a spot in the order hoping for Beavan to figure it out, or for Wilhelmsen to translate closer success into starter success. There’s a laundry list of free-agent pitchers out there that could help bolster the rotation for a few years. And, contrary to popular opinion, we might just need some stability on staff.

We’re all hoping that each of Taijuan Walker, James Paxton and Danny Hultzen becomes valuable parts of the pitching staff. But Joel articulated the harsh reality of prospects not too long ago. Perhaps we should taper our expectations to 1-out-of-the-Big-Three, and muster up a backup plan.

First stop: Fangraphs’ free agent leaderboards!

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I’m quite fond of Zack Greinke, and Peavy is intriguing; but cost and injury risk, respectively, turn me away. Brandon McCarthy gets your wheels turning upstairs, and teams are likely to shy away due to his off-season brain surgery. But I don’t want high risk. We’re avoiding high-risk, right?

The guys I’m looking at are Edwin Jackson and Dan Haren. Did you know Jackson is just 29 years old? Jackson has never put up less than 160 innings, and we know just what we’re getting.

Talk about consistency, especially in the xFIPs. Last year he didn’t like any long-term offers and went to the Nats for a one-year, $11M allowance. Then he went ahead and put up a very Edwin Jackson-like season. Edwin Jackson is not Felix Hernandez, but Edwin Jackson is not Blake Beavan. We know exactly who Edwin Jackson is. He’s right up there in that chart. Maybe the M’s could get him for three years and less than $30M? I’d do it.

Dan Haren is, if you can believe it, actually older than Jake Peavy. However, Haren has a recent track record of actually pitching. Peavy hadn’t broken 200 innings before this season in three years. Haren’s K/BB rates have never dipped below 3.00, and recently clocked in at 3.74 (2012). One thing that irks me a little is that the Angels declined his $15.5M option earlier this month, instead paying him $3.5M to hit free agency. Home teams tend to know their players well, and Buster Olney reported something about hip problems. The speculation is that he will have to settle for a one or two-year deal. That deal is not likely to be for $15.5M per year, or even close to it. The Angels essentially valued him at $12M for 2013 (15.5 – 3.5). His injury concerns don’t sound too risky, and Haren could be available for, maybe, two years at $24M? I’d do it.

Yes, I realize we need bats, too. But pretending that the rotation is fine and that all three parts of the three-headed monster will become major league talents is naïve. Getting a solid #2 starter now while it’s available on the market would be a savvy move.

By notable I don’t mean Jon Heyman, who has become one of the worst sources for baseball rumors in all of baseball. I’m not trying to specifical take a cheap shot at the guy, in a lot of ways he reminds me of Sansa Stark. She means well in everything she does you wonder if she actually thinks about things prior to doing them. There is also the situation of how badly she is used and abused by the Lena Headley and that little punk Joeffery. This is how I think of the Boras – Heyman relationship, where Heyman just leaks sources that really seems more like bargining leverage, it’s really one sided but Heyman doesn’t realize that and sadly is involved in dependent relationship.

I’m not done with my game of thrones compairsons more to follow. But back to Iwakuma and the Mariners. The pairing is a solid match for both Iwakuma and the organization. Iwakuma doesn’t throw especially hard, but he’s got some above average secondary offerings and while Safeco Field helps left handed pitchers out, in general it’s a pitchers park and that’s nothing but a good thing for Iwakuma. He profiles to be a little better than the back-of-the-rotation pitcher so he’d fit especially nice behind Vargas and in front of someone like Blake Beavan or even Erasmo Ramirez should they give him the #5 spot out of spring training.

My one concern is how much they end up spending on Iwakuma. Of course he’s a bit better than a typical #4 or #5 so you could expect that it’s going to take a bit of money to sign him and obviously more than say Jeff Francis or a Kevin Millwood. Looking at last year during his negotiations it’s believed that he turned down an offer of approximately $3-5m annually and was seeking upwards of $12 million a year. While, I don’t expect him to get that much, I would be surprised if he got a contract near the range of $7-9m. That would be just a notch lower than what Edwin Jackson is seeking ($60m / 5yrs.)

Again, I’m really not putting much weight into this. The rumor itself really not surprising in any way. We already know that Jack Zduriencik has seen seeking an experienced pitcher and one that is reliable. Iwakuma is that and not only that but possibly a bit more. I expect there to be more rumors connecting the Mariners with experience pitchers until Jack Zduriencik fills the role and even after that we all are aware that he never stops searching to upgrade his roster.

But as the season goes on and I sit down and actually take a look back at last season, the Rangers didn’t exactly standout as much as they had in my mind. They took advantage of a lot of key match ups. Part of what helped them is they were 32-25 against a meager AL West last year and then went 14-4 playing against bad inter-league teams such as like Pittsburgh, Houston and catching Milwaukee during injuries.

This a lone accounts for a 46-29 record which in a way doesn’t seem “dominate” despite being 17 games over .500. I’m not saying they were bad by any means, good teams beat bad teams. Isn’t that the saying? But then you look at their record against teams above .500 (Minnesota, Chicago, Tampa Bay, New York, Boston and Toronto) they were a combined 23-30. So while they weren’t a bad team, maybe they weren’t as impressive as we made them out to be and I think this year they are a bit more exposed.

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