July 8, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; USA pitcher Danny Hultzen throws a pitch during the third inning of the 2012 All Star Futures Game at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: H. Darr Beiser-USA TODAY Sports via USA TODAY Sports

Last week I posted my Mariner’s hitter projections for the upcoming season. This time, I am going to talk about my predictions for the rotation in 2013. Like before, I used FanGraphs’ projection system. For pitchers, the system asks you to pick a stat range for the following categories: Games, Pitcher Role, IP/Game, Wins, Losses, ERA, K/9, BB/9, and HR/9. It then takes those ranges, and puts them together to create a more accurate and coexisting stat line, as opposed to the person just picking their own numbers that may not jive together.

Here are my projections for the starters I see playing a significant role this year. There are sure to be more due to injuries and such, but those are difficult to project, so I didn’t worry about them. Side note, you will also notice that the pitcher stats are less specific than the hitting stats, and that a lot of the numbers will be similar from one pitcher to the next.

Felix Hernandez

With the extension under his belt, I expect big things from the King this year. He was around where you would expect last year, posting a 2.84 FIP, 3.20 xFIP and 6.1 fWAR. As you can see above, I expect a pretty similar season across the board, with the only significant change being a lower ERA. He could very well be even better than this, and there’s a chance we have yet to see Felix at his best. He is entering his prime at the age of 27, and should be poised for a big season. Assuming there is no elbow trouble, and his velocity doesn’t drop any more, we could see Felix earn his 2nd Cy Young Award in 2013.

Hisashi Iwakuma

After being hidden at the end of the bullpen to start the year, Iwakuma made a big impact in the rotation last year. He made 14 bullpen appearances before getting his first start in July, and staying there for the rest of the year. He posted a  3.16 ERA, although his 4.35 FIP suggests that he didn’t actually pitch quite that well. He doesn’t do anything particularly well, but also doesn’t do anything horribly bad. He gets a decent amount of strikeouts, limits walks, and gets a solid percentage of ground balls. On second look, he does need to reduce  the amount of homers he allows, but it isn’t awful at 10.9%. As seen above, I expect a year fairly similar to last year, with the major difference being a regression in his ERA. He should be a decent stop gap for the next two years until the kids are ready.

Joe Saunders

Saunders is basically a Vargas clone, but was better overall than Vargas last year. He posted a 4.07 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 4.25 xFIP and 2.5 WAR split between Arizona and Baltimore, two hitters parks, whereas Vargas put up a 3.85 ERA, 4.69 FIP, 4.45 xFIP and 0.8 WAR in the friendly confines of Safeco. Now, it was also a down year for Vargas and an up year for Saunders, and some regression back to the norm is to be expected from both. They have been pretty much equal for their careers, with a slight edge to Saunders. The fact that we are essentially getting Vargas’ clone and Morales instead of just the real Vargas makes for a win-win situation. But if Saunders does what he did last year, or better, than that’s just net gain.

Erasmo Ramirez

Like Iwakuma, Erasmo got limited opportunities as a starter, due to both being stuck in the pen, and then getting injured later. He also made the most of his limited time, and really impressed me. He is undersized, but still manages to hit 94-95 at times, and has solid secondary stuff. He limits walks and homers, while getting a decent amount of K’s. He has always been a solid performer, and was probably overlooked because of his size, which happens much to often. It shouldn’t matter how big he is if he gets the job does, and Erasmo does. It should be more of the same next year, and I expect him to be the second best starter on the team next year behind Felix.

Blake Beavan

Beavan is the lesser of two evils between himself and Noesi, and is often talked down upon. And I understand that. He doesn’t strike many people out, is susceptible to the long ball, and is just kind of boring to watch. But he hasn’t been horrible for his purposes. In 41 starts he has posted a 4.37 ERA and 4.85 FIP. Not good, but keep in mind he is a back end starter who is only there because there were no other options. There’s a good chance this is the last year that he has a rotation spot, and may not even stay there for the whole year.  But if he can up his strike out rate like I project above, he could be at least a presentable back end starter until he is replaced by one of the prospects.

Danny Hultzen

Despite his ending of last season, I see Hultzen pitching his way onto the major league roster at some point during the year. He said that his struggles in AAA Tacoma last year (5.92 ERA, 7.95 BB/9) were due to fatigue. He had never pitched that much in his career, and was trying too hard. He knew that he had lost some speed and movement, so he had to overcompensate by throwing harder, or pronating further, and that caused him to lose control. I haven’t lost any confidence in his ability to be a successful pitcher in the bigs as early as this season. I see him coming up sometime in mid-late June, and pitching into early-mid September before being shutdown as to not overdo it again.

Those are the guys I see getting significant time in the rotation next year. I could go into the bullpen, but the personnel, and success of the personnel fluctuate so much from year to year, that I didn’t feel like making projections made much sense. I will say that I expect, for the most part, the ‘pen to consist of Charlie Furbush, Lucas Luetge, Carter Capps, Stephen Pryor, Oliver Perez and Tom Wilhelmsen, but that’s about as far as I’ll go into it. It looks to be a solid bullpen on paper, but judging bullpens before actually seeing them that year is never a safe bet.

Once again, feel free to make your own projections and share them in the comments. Also, stay tuned for the post-offseason win projection poll, so we can see how people’s opinions have changed after seeing the moves Jack and company made.

Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

This week, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com compiled the top 100 prospects in the league. The Mariners’ farm system ranked near the top of both the American and National League, with three prospects in the top 25 and five players in all.

Here’s a brief look at each of Seattle’s top five prospects:

Taijuan Walker

2013 Top 100 Prospects rating: 5
2012 Top 100 Prospects rating: 4

The most lucrative name of the Mariners’ Big Four (Walker, Danny Hultzen, James Paxton, and Brandon Maurer), Taijuan spent his third MiLB season with the Double-A Jackson Generals. Over 25 starts and 126.2 IP, he finished with a 4.69 ERA, allowing 50 walks, 12 home runs, and striking out 118 of 550 batters.

CBS Sports highlighted the 20-year-old last August: “In the end, he knows the Mariners are looking out for his long-term success — something they believe will come. One scout told CBSSports.com, “I never like to anoint guys, but he’s special.”

Walker’s special because of his physique, the fact he throws an easy high-90s fastball and the curve and change up are developing. But more than that, the team loves his work ethic and his maturity.”

Danny Hultzen

2013 Top 100 Prospects rating: 18
2012 Top 100 Prospects rating: 8

Although Walker’s potential is considered tops in the Mariners’ organization, the southpaw Hultzen has been drawing attention as well. He advanced to the Triple-A Tacoma Rainiers’ staff in 2012, posting a 5.92 ERA in 12 starts and 48.2 IP. While generating a walk rate of 17.9%, he allowed just two home runs to 240 batters.

Mayo had this to say about Hultzen: “The biggest surprise was a loss of control (he finished 2012 with a 5.4 BB/9 rate), something that was a plus for Hultzen coming out of the University of Virginia. Most see that as a blip on the radar and still feel his stuff and pitchability should have him ready for the big leagues very soon.”

Mike Zunino

2013 Top 100 Prospects rating: 23
2012 Top 100 Prospects rating: 44

With the loss of John Jaso and Miguel Olivo this offseason, fans have turned an eager eye to the development of Mike Zunino, a hot-hitting backstop who jumped from short-season single A to Double-A in his first minor league season. At 21 years old, Zunino projected numbers like those of Jesus Montero (albeit at a bit slower pace), batting .333/.386/.558 in 15 games with Jackson, picking up 7 XBH, 8 RBI, and an OPS of .974.

On his mid-season call-up to the Jackson Generals, Prospect Insider’s Jason Churchill wrote the following: “Zunino, the top college bat in a class lacking depth in that area, generally receives average or better grades across the board, including receiving, blocking and throwing, and offers above-average-to-plus power with the bat.

He understands the game of baseball and knows how to catch. He has leadership skills, big-league makeup and as one scout put it early on draft day, “he has that vinegar, that extra gear of effort and feel that makes you want him on your team.”

Nick Franklin

2013 Top 100 Prospects rating: 47
2012 Top 100 Prospects rating: 29

Shortstop Nick Franklin is on the rise to the majors, completing his fourth minor-league year with half a season in Triple-A. In 2012, he hit .243/.310/.416 in 64 games and 296 PA for the Rainiers, collecting 7 home runs, 29 RBI, and 24 walks along the way. Although his starts were split evenly between second base and shortstop, Franklin has notched almost three times as many games at short in his minor league career.

Mayo’s analysis, per MLB.com: “A switch-hitter who has been much better from the left side thus far in his career, Franklin has a good idea at the plate with a good approach. The ball can jump off his bat thanks to his bat speed and he has more power than one would expect. His solid speed plays up because he has very good instincts on the basepaths.”

James Paxton

2013 Top 100 Prospects rating: 61
2012 Top 100 Prospects rating: 74

The Mariners’ last prospect on the list is LHP James Paxton, another member of the Big Four and the oldest of this group at 24 years old. He has two seasons of Double-A ball under his belt: from 2011 to 2012, his ERA jumped from 1.85 in 39.0 IP to 3.05 over his first full season of 106.1 IP. In 21 starts, he struck out 110 batters of 453 and allowed just 5 home runs to 54 walks.

An early report from Project Prospect projects Paxton as one of the Mariners’ regulars in the near future: “Paxton is raw for his age but he is also a rare talent. If he is able to harness his raw stuff, he could wind up being a No. 1-2 caliber starter and be a important part of a great future Mariners rotation. He could force his way up in 2012, but 2013 is a reasonable time to expect him to solidify himself as a big leaguer.”

Who do you want to see called up to Seattle in 2013?

Dec 6, 2011; Dallas, TX, USA; Seattle Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik answers questions on the MLB.com set during the MLB winter meetings at Hilton Anatole. What will happen during the 2012 MLB winter meeting and will Zduriencik be able to bring home a team that will win this year? Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

It’s no secret that the Seattle Mariners are in big need of some strong offense. General Manager Jack Zduriencik is very active at the 2012 winter MLB meetings in Nashville, Tennessee.

Rumor has it that there are three prospects for pitchers for the Seattle team: Danny Hultzen, James Paxton, and Taijuan Walker who may be up for trade when the Mariners go batter-hunting. While the Mariners do have some funds freed up to pick up a free agent this year, they may still need to pull some trade strings to get someone who will work hard for their team. It boils down to a big decision for the Mariners’ team management: Trade away young, unproven prospects for players that have shown their stuff or spend more money on their payroll for the roster.

With attendance falling, and confidence in the team low, the pressure is on for Zduriencik to build a team that can compete. A lot more than bringing in the walls at SafeCo Field is necessary in order to develop a winning team. The question is, will the team be able to gain the members it needs in order to compete against big-budget teams like the New York Yankees?

If the Oakland Athletics could pull out of a slump to become the AL West Champions this past year under the logic put forth by the Billy Beane Moneyball tactics that changed the face of baseball, perhaps the Mariners need to start thinking in an out-of-the box way as well.Who will get on base, and more importantly, once on base, who will be able to get home for the all-important score?

Some of the players the Mariners are rumored to be interested in include:

• Josh Hamilton
• Justin Upton
• Mike Napoli
• Nick Swisher
• Cody Ross
• Ryan Ludwick
• Mark Reynolds
• Garrett Jones

A lot of this will be contingent upon how much the M’s are able to put forward financially and who they are willing to trade for the various players on their wish list. What do you think the beloved Seattle team should be looking at in order to get to a pennant win in the 2013 season?