Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

When the Mariners swapped Doug Fister to Detroit for four young players in 2011, it seemed like the Mariners had gotten a decent haul for a mid-to-back end starter. Fast forward to today and the package doesn’t look so great. While Fister has taken a step forward and become a #2 starter, the Mariners package seems to consist of mainly role players. Sure, Charlie Furbush had a breakthrough year out of the pen in 2012, but his potential as a starting pitcher has all but vanished. 22-year-old Francisco Martinez was over-matched in Double-A last season – hitting .227 with 2 home-runs in 402 plate appearances and showing few signs of translating the potential that some scouts saw in him. Prized relief prospect Chance Ruffin took a major step backward in 2012, lacking the stuff that made him a first round pick in 2010. The final piece of the package was Casper Wells, whose future in the organization is likely to be equally questionable.

Casper Wells brings a lot of athleticism to the table and it’s easy to see why the front office targeted him in the Fister deal. Wells has one of the stronger arms in the game, the range to play centerfield in a pinch, and very impressive pull power from the right side. However, Wells has been extremely inconsistent and hasn’t really gotten the benefit of regular playing time from manager Eric Wedge. In the first couple months, Wells only got 53 plate appearances and then was soon demoted to Tacoma. When he was finally given regular playing time in July, Wells disappointed with a .226/.293/.396 line during that month.

Now the Mariners have gone out and signed a possible replacement in Jason Bay, and could possibly add one or two more outfielders to the mix. If this is the case, then Casper Wells could very well be on his way out of Seattle or he’s going to have to fight hard to make the 25-man roster in the spring.

As a right-handed outfielder, Bay is currently the main competition for Wells on the roster. Let’s take a look at how their skills have stacked up over the past three years.

Based on these numbers, Wells and Bay have quite similar profiles. The advantages for Bay include his veteran leadership and slightly better contact and discipline skills. Meanwhile, Wells should be in his prime and has brought much more productive power and defense in the past three years. As you can see in the profile above, Wells seems to be average-to-above average in every area except for contact. In 2012, Wells ranked 256th in contact rate out of the 265 players who had 300 or more plate appearances. This has been a huge area of concern for Wells and it should be noted that his contact rate has declined significantly in each big league season. On a positive note, it was reported that Wells got Lasik surgery this off-season which hopefully can help him improve in this area.

Although I think Wells can bring more with the glove, I think it’ll be interesting to see if Bay can find some of the elite power that he had as recently as 2009. Overall, it’ll be up to Bay and Wells to duke it out in the spring and prove who can contribute more to the 2013 team. If the Mariners add another outfielder or two, Wells could quickly become an outsider and may very well have a new team come April.

Comment below: Can you see Wells being a factor in 2013? How about a Thames/Wells platoon in right field?

Jun 02, 2012; Chicago, IL, USA; Seattle Mariners first baseman Mike Carp (20) gets a hit against the Chicago White Sox during the fourth inning at US Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-US PRESSWIRE

This will be the first part of a series analyzing some of the more questionable players on the current Mariners roster. These players have unknown roles going forward in the organization and this series will attempt to determine where each player stands. 

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It wasn’t too long ago when Mike Carp looked like he would be a stable part of Seattle’s future. After destroying AAA in 2011, Carp came up to Seattle and hit .323 with 8 home runs and 34 RBIs in just 155 at bats in July and August 2011. Although his numbers dropped off in September, Carp helped energize an anemic offense and provided some real hope for the future.

One year later and Carp seems like an afterthought. Lost to an unfortunate opening day injury that would plague him for the entire season, Carp’s 2012 resulted in just 189 trips to the plate and a mere .213 with 5 home runs in total. After returning from the DL, Carp faded into the bench as the Mariners auditioned other young players – including the strikingly similar newcomer Eric Thames.

One of my first thoughts when the Mariners acquired Thames from the Blue Jays in July was “Is Mike Carp done in this organization? They’re basically the same player!” While Thames is a mere five months younger, both are left handed bats with intriguing power but fringy contact and plate discipline skills. Thames is certainly more athletic and faster, but both take terrible routes in the outfield.

To compare, lake a look at the snapshot of their profiles below. Both players are rated on the traditional scouting scale (20 is the worst, 50 is average, 80 is the best) based on adjusted numbers from the past three years. Each skill is measured by different factors and compared against all other players from 2010-2012 to generate these numbers. I’ll likely explain more in a later post, but basically batting average and home runs have been adjusted based on luck, and counting numbers are based on 600 plate appearances (or a full season).

As seen in the profiles above, Carp and Thames are extremely similar ballplayers. The only real difference is some slightly better plate discipline from Carp and much better baserunning from Thames. With Franklin Gutierrez, Michael Saunders and (presumably) Casper Wells penciled in for the 2013 roster, there just isn’t room for both of them. Not to mention the rumors of the M’s pursuing Josh Hamilton and Nick Swisher in free agency. The only exception would be if the Mariners cut bait on Justin Smoak, allowing Mike Carp to slide into first base, but that seems highly unlikely. So, who is most likely to stay or go?

The deciding factor may lie in the fact that Carp is out of options, while Thames has one remaining. With the two players being so similar, it is likely that the Mariners will look to trade Carp and let Thames audition for an opening day job. If Thames disappoints in Spring Training, then he can spend some time in Tacoma without a problem. Plus, it doesn’t take any number-crunching to know that Thames is much more athletic than Carp. While both have performed pretty horribly in the outfield, there is at least hope that Thames can keep working to become a decent defender. Taking better routes is something that could be learned and hopefully Thames’ athleticism will allow him to improve himself in ways that Carp couldn’t.

With the Mariners looking to be aggressive this off-season and to add in the outfield and possibly first-base, there just aren’t many roster spots up for grabs. It’s a little difficult giving up on either player considering what has happened to similar players like Mike Morse and Raul Ibanez in the past. Like Morse and Ibanez, it’s easy to see Carp and Thames putting together some good offensive seasons in the future and making Seattle regret letting them go. They both have raw power and the ability to contribute in a winning lineup – the question is whether or not it will be in Seattle. For Mike Carp, unfortunately, his chance will most likely come somewhere outside of the Pacific Northwest.

What do you think? Which one would you keep? Or would you rather find a way to keep them both?