Fangraphs has the “projector” choose a range for the following categories: Games played, spot in the batting order, position, batting average, 2B+3B/150 games, HR/150 games, K and BB%, stolen bases/150 games, and finally fielding/150 games. It then takes those projections, does some calculations, and gives you a full batting line based on what you projected.

You can always just come up with your own projections for each stat, but their system helps each stat coincide, and prevents someone from projecting two contradictory stats, such as 40 HR, but only a .420 slugging percentage or something like that. Side note, I may tweak some of them if I think they are too off base for what I actually think.

So, here is what the computer put together for each player based on my projections.

Dustin Ackley

Ackley was extremely disappointing last year, hitting a measly .226/.294/.328. He did play the whole year with an injury, but we will see how much of an effect that had. The good news is that his K rate went down from his rookie year, and his contact rates went up. It may be a matter of not “stepping in the bucket” any more, or something else mechanically. But as you can see in my projections, I expect a bounce back season form the former #2 overall pick. The numbers it gave me are pretty much exactly what I would have said myself, which is a good sign. If he puts together a line similar to this, I would call it a successful season.

Kyle Seager

Seager had a solid breakout year last season, and exceeded most people’s standards. He hit .259/.316/.423, with a surprisingly high 20 home runs. He didn’t show a ton of power in the minors, but was able to hit a solid amount of bombs last year. The projections are pretty much what I expect, although the HR might be 2-3 too high. I don’t think we will see him exceed his 20 HR output last year, but he should be close to that number. He has a solid frame, and a bit of an uppercut which aid in his power. If he can continue to improve his contact and on base numbers, he could be a very good player in the future.

Jesus Montero

Montero was somewhat disappointing, and didn’t live up to the high expectations put on him. But, he was only 22 years old, and you can’t expect too much out of someone so young. Would I have liked to see something a little better than that? Sure, but I haven’t lost faith. I am not AS confident as I was in him, but I still see a solid or better player in the future. That can be seen in the stats above, as they are all slightly improved over last year. I agree with them for the most part, but I had to bump up the HR and 2B numbers by a couple each. I think with the fences in, and his continued progression, he should be at least in the 20-23 HR range. Bill James is projecting an .803 OPS for next year, while the fans overall are at .781, so I feel pretty safe where I am. I fully expect him to continue to improve, and become a good middle of the order guy in the future.

Kendrys Morales

Morales had a solid year last year coming off a major injury. He posted a .339 wOBA and 118 wRC+ for the Angels last year, and I expect even better this year. He had an all-star caliber year in 2009, and was looking like he was on pace for another in 2010 before suffering an injury during a walk-off celebration against the Mariners. The numbers above look great, and I would be ecstatic if he produced like that. The power numbers look about right, but I am not sure about the .289/.346 part. I don’t see him walking over 40 times, but you never know. To be honest, if he could put up a .275/.330/.475 line, I would be perfectly fine. If Smoak figures it out, we could have an interesting “problem” at 1st base after next year, but that’s for another article.

Michael Morse

Morse was only able to play in 102 games last year, and was good, but not great in his limited time. He put up a .791 OPS last year, a big drop off from his .910 OPS in 2011. That’s probably my biggest disagreement with his stats above, I don’t see him getting 584 PA next year, seeing as he has averaged 433 PA/year for the last three years. Other than that, I think its conceivable. Its pretty close to his career numbers, which is about where he should be. The OBP might be a little high too, as his plate discipline has been suspect as well. Its hard to tell what he is going to be, but if he can put up numbers similar to those above, then I would call the trade a win. Anything less, and I may be a little disappointed.

Michael Saunders

Saunders finally figured it out last year after being written off by most because of his constant struggles. He was able to be the opening day center fielder due to Guti’s injury, and he made the most of it. He started off really well, then slumped, then figured it out, then slumped again, then ended the season on a high note. Consistency is going to be a big factor in his success next year. I think my prediction is attainable if he can limit the months in which he hits a wall, like August when he posted a 72 wRC+. He hit .247/.306/.432 for the season last year, so the numbers above would mean a small improvement in all parts of his offense. It looks very reasonable to me, and I think there’s a decent chance he has an even better year than that.

Justin Smoak

We all know about how disappointing Smoak has been thus far. He has hit .223/.306/.377 for his career, and didn’t show much improvement last year. That is, until he hit .341/.426/.580 in September. Now, I am not saying that that one month overrides the numerous months where he hit .220. But it does give me a little hope that he still has it in him. Plus, he posted a 111 wRC+ in the second half, so even in bigger periods he showed flashes of improvement. I don’t know why, but I get a feeling this is the year he gets in. He won’t be an All Star all the sudden, but numbers around what I have above, or even better. This really is his make or break year though, because if he doesn’t get it done, the Ms have another option in Kendrys Morales who they could try to extend.

Franklin Gutierrez

Guti is pretty much an enigma at this point. We don’t know if he will be healthy (although I think he should be), and we don’t know what to expect if he is healthy. He was decent last year in very limited time (.260/.309/.420), and very good in his offseason league (.349/.411/.523). On the other hand, he was well below average in the two seasons before last, so its hard to have too much hope. Hopefully if he can stay healthy we will see the old Guti, or something closer to it. The numbers above would be disappointing, so hopefully he is a little better, but its very hard to tell at this point.

Kelly Shoppach

Shoppach will probably serve as the backup catcher for Jesus Montero, so he won’t get a ton of time. I think it might make sense to have him in a platoon type roll, catching against lefties, with Montero DH-ing. Either way, he probably won’t get many more than 300 or so PA. He has been slightly below average for his career (.226/.314/.418), with his only full season being his best year. He has contact and strikeout issues, (33.4 K% for his career), but he is able to make up for it somewhat with solid plate discipline and power. If he plays mainly against lefties the numbers above wold probably look a lot better, seeing as he has a career .374 wOBA and 134 wRC+ against righties for his career. Either way, he probably won’t have too extensive of a role this year.

Brendan Ryan

Its a good thing Ryan plays great defense at shortstop. He hasn’t brought much of anything at the plate for his career (.244/.306/.327), and its been even worse lately. He has his worst offensive year last year, hitting .194/.277/.278 with 61 wRC+. But thanks to being the best defensive shortstop in the league, he was still able to be about league average for a starter. His time as a Mariner may be numbered with Nick Franklin and Brad Miller on the way, but for now, I am perfectly okay with him starting at short for the time being. He is a good clubhouse guy, and plays amazing defense. If he can pull off a .600 OPS or better, he can still be a valuable player.

Well, there you have it. Obviously there will be other guys getting ABs, but the guys above figure to play the biggest roles in the upcoming season. Guys like Raul Ibanez and Casper Wells will be able to earn some time if they hit well in their bench roles, or could step in if there is an injury. The numbers aren’t perfect, but they should give a good idea of what I expect for the upcoming season.

Stay tuned for the Pitchers Projections next week, and if you want to take the time to make your own projections and post them in the comments, feel free.

September 28, 2012; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Athletics designated hitter Jonny Gomes (31) reacts to a called third strike during the seventh inning at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-US PRESSWIRE

Recently, Dave Cameron at U.S.S Mariner wrote up his offseason plan for 2013. And while I have mentioned some options in past articles, I haven’t really put them together in one piece yet. I am going to use a similar format, as I think it works well at displaying the information.

You may also see some similarities between the plan’s, as I did agree on a few things that he proposed.

Here are the moves I would like to see made:

Trade LHP James Paxton and 3B/OF Vinnie Catricala to the Indians for RF Shin-Soo Choo, and re-sign him for 3 years/$34 million (on top of the arbitration year he has in 2013)

Sign OF Jonny Gomes for 2 years/$9 million.

Sign Travis Hafner for 1 year/$3 million

Re-Sign Hishashi Iwakuma for 2 years/$8 million

Sign Carlos Villanueva for 2 year/$7 million

Trade  Mike Carp and Trayvon Robinson for IF Sean Rodriguez and C Chris Gimenez.

As you can see, a few were very similar to Dave’s. However, there were some key differences as well.

Here is the opening day roster according to my plan (credit to Dave for the original table):

As you may have noticed, there are many similarities to Dave’s plan. I like the Villanueva, Hafner and Rodriguez/Giminez moves that Dave proposed. They all fill needs very well, without having to give up too much money, or players via trade.

Villanueva gives us a back end starter instead of Beaven or Noesi, who don’t really do much for us. The difference was that I proposed that we sign him for 2 years, and let Vargas go, whereas Dave wanted a one year deal, and to bring back Vargas. It’s not that I like Villanueva more than Vargas, I just think think we get more bang for the buck.

Bringing in Hafner gives us a lefty bat with some power who doesn’t require a ton of money, or playing time. If Montero plays well in AAA (I’ll get to that in a second), then Hafner can easily be moved to a part time/bench role. He will most likely get injured at some point anyway, but he is a very solid hitter when healthy.

The trade with Tampa Bay is a need for need type deal. We need some infield depth (Rodriguez), and a backup catcher (Giminez, who can also play the corners), and the Rays could use a young 1B option, and some outfield depth. R0driguez can play anywhere in the infield, and has a good bat for a backup.

As for the two bigger moves, we need to improve the offense, particularly in the outfield. Shin-Soo Choo is on the trading block after refusing to re-sign with the Indians. When healthy, he is a 140 wRC+, .384 wOBA guy. And while he isn’t an amazing power hitter (or as good in that area as Swisher, who Dave wants), he is a very good hitter, and creates runs in other ways. Some people tend to get so caught up in homers and RBIs, that they forget that the name of the game is run creation. In my opinion, it doesn’t matter how you create said runs as long as you do it. He is also much more affordable than Swisher.

Jonny Gomes had a very sneaky good year, posting a.375 wOBA and 142 wRC+ in 99 games for the equally as sneaky A’s. He is usually an under the radar player, who puts together some solid seasons without recognition. He is a career 109 wRC+ guy, including a terrible year in 2008. Take away that year, and that number jumps up to ~ 114. He also averages  17 homers in about 108 games a year. If you extrapolate that out to 150 games played, he would average 23 HR/year. His power is great enough that he won’t be affected too much by Safeco, which is always a plus.

Bringing in the guys I mentioned should give us 6-8 more wins than the likes of Beaven, Wells, Thames, Noesi and Peguero would.

You may have noticed that I left Jesus Montero off the team like Dave did. Well, that is for the same reason as him. It makes sense to start him in AAA to get accustomed to 1st base, where I think he will play moving forward. He also has some things to work out offensively, and could benefit from a less stressful situation when dealing with said issues. If he looks strong to quite strong at 1st and at the plate, you bring him up and throw the Hafner/Guti platoon on the bench, or at least into a lesser role.

As for the logjam at 1B/DH that I talk about so frequently; if Mike Zunino hits his way onto the team next year, Jaso will have to move out from behind the plate. Best case scenario for me is that Smoak and Jaso begin a platoon, with Smoak playing 1st (Montero DH) against LHP, and Jaso DHing (Montero at 1st) against RHP. That group, along with Choo, Gomes and Seager should be a solid run-producing-force offensively.

To me, this team is much better than this year’s. We bring in some proven guys, as well as some low risk/high reward types in an effort to get the offense to where it needs to be. The short-ish contracts also allow for some of the prospects who are playing well in the minors to take a spot on the team in the future. The biggest needs of the team are addressed without having to overpay or take playing time away from the kids who may need a little more time before they reach their potential, such as Montero, or even Zunino who could see the bigs next year.

These are just ideas that I think make sense for the Mariners to think about in their quest to find a decent offense to go along with the stud pitching we will/should have in a couple years. That will be the focus of the offseason, and is very possible with either my or Dave’s plan. I just happen to like the inexpensive-effectiveness of mine.

Sep 16, 2012; Arlington, TX, USA; Seattle Mariners first baseman Justin Smoak (17) rounds the bases after hitting a home run in the eighth inning of the game against the Texas Rangers at Rangers Ballpark. The Rangers beat the Mariners 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-US PRESSWIRE

I honestly cannot believe I am writing this. If you asked me as little as a month ago what I thought about Justin Smoak‘s future, I’d have told you he is done. Officially a bust, and should not get any more second, or fifth, chances.

But, Smoak’s play in September gave me hope again. Now, something similar happened earlier in the year as well when he heated up and won AL Player of the Week. Look how that turned out. However, he was SO GOOD this past month that I think he at least earned the right to battle for the spot. In my opinion though, we should not bring in any significant player to replace him at 1st, at least not now.

First, let’s analyze Smoak’s final month of the season. In 24 games, Smoak put up an astounding .427 wOBA, and 181 wRC+, along with 5 homers and 6 doubles. He only had 7 doubles total for the whole rest of the year. For those of you who don’t know, that 181 wRC+ means that he created 81% more runs than the average player. For reference, Mike Trout led the MLB in that category at 175.

Now obviously Smoak could never sustain anything close to that, but the fact that he was able to do it for a respectable amount of time is encouraging. And for some reason, I am letting one month over shadow the whole rest of his disappointing career.

That being said, Smoak’s resurgence isn’t the only reason I don’t want us to bring in a big name, long term 1st basemen. The more significant reason is because I think that is where Jesus Montero will play long term. To start the year, he and Jaso will most likely share time between catcher and DH. However it wouldn’t surprise me if we saw catching prospect Mike Zunino at some point later in the year. He tore through the minors this year, and made it all the way to AA in about half a season in the minors. When he comes up, assuming Jaso plays how he did this year (or at least better than Smoak), Zunino would catch, with Jaso moving to DH. This would then shift Jesus to 1st, and knock Smoak to the bench.

If we have a big name guy come in to play first, one of Montero or Jaso gets moved to the bench. With Smoak however, he and Jaso would be having a battle for who keeps their job. This ensures that the best player is out there. If we were to go out and spend money/prospects on someone like Justin Morneau, then Jaso could lose playing time depsite hitting well.

The time to go after a 1st basemen would be during or after next season, and only if one of Montero, Jaso or Zunino show that they aren’t worthy of an everyday spot in the lineup, and we feel we need an upgrade.

So what happens if Smoak does finally figure it out, and there becomes one more person than positions? I guess at that point we could consider trading one of them in order to fill a different spot on the team. The chances of that are slim however.

The odds are against Smoak, that’s obvious. He has had many chances to prove himself, and hasn’t been able to do so. But the potential he once had, and the flashes of brilliance we have seen give me hope that maybe he can and will figure it out. But this is it for me. One more shot. If he fails to play well enough (.330 wOBA, 110 wRC+?), then it is time to move on. I no longer expect the .275 average, .350 wOBA, 125 wRC+, 25 home runs that I once did. At this point, I would be very happen if he even came close to that. Let’s hope he surprises me, and figures out whatever it is he needs to figure out.