The newest Mariner starter, Aaron Harang. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-USA TODAY Sports

UPDATE:

The Mariners will send right-handed reliever Steven Hensley to the Dodgers in exchange for Harang. Hensley made two appearances in Tacoma in 2013, surrendering one run. Last season, Hensley split time in between Jackson and Tacoma, posting a 4.84 ERA in 44 relief appearances.

The back end of the Mariners rotation has struggled mightily in 2013, and patience has apparently run out. According to Fox’s Ken Rosenthal, the Mariners are in the final stages of securing a deal for Rockies’ starter Aaron Harang.

Harang, who went 10-10 with a 3.61 ERA last season for the Dodgers, was traded to the Rockies Saturday in exchange for backup catcher Ramon Hernandez. Immediately, the Rockies designated Harang for assignment and began shopping him to prospective teams around the league.

According to Rosenthal’s twitter account, the teams need approval of the commissioner’s office, which typically is required when a trade involves an exchange of over $1 million. Harang presents an inexpensive option, since the Dodgers are already covering more than half of his $7 million 2013 salary.

Recent reports have also linked an unnamed right-handed reliever to go from the Mariners to the Rockies once the trade goes through.

Harang would likely replace either Brandon Maurer or Blake Beavan in the Mariners’ rotation. Maurer, who is 0-2 with an atrocious 16.20 ERA thus far in 2013, failed to get out of the first inning Tuesday. He surrendered six earned runs and seven hits while recording just two outs. Beavan has posted an 0-1 record with a 7.59 ERA in his first two starts. The Astros beat him around Wednesday night to the tune of five runs (four earned) and nine hits in 5.2 innings.

Beavan after allowing a homerun. Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Even though we are just a few weeks away from the long awaited beginning of spring training, there are still lots of potential moves to be made by the Mariners.

Seattle needs to make some moves in the starting rotation. At the current moment, the third starter in the rotation has a 4.79 xFIP in his career, the fourth starter has just 59 innings in the major leagues, and the fifth starter had the second worst WAR and second worst xFIP in baseball last year among pitchers who completed 100 innings.

For the record, I think Erasmo Ramirez will be a solid starter down the road, but that doesn’t change the fact the rotation I just described isn’t going to foster much success, especially since it won’t receive an incredible amount of run support.

The rotation needs some help. There are plenty of arms that Seattle could trade for with relative ease. Let’s start with the Los Angeles Dodgers which is a team that essentially has eight suitable starting pitchers. Chris Capuano, Aaron Harang, and Ted Lilly will all probably be available through trade.

Capuano posted a 2.1 WAR last year in almost 200 innings of work and posted a 3.95 FIP. Harang posted a 1.5 WAR. Although Lilly’s 2012 season was plagued with injury, he posted a sub 4 FIP in his 8 starts, and it appears that he will be in full health by spring training. Any of these three players should be available and could serve as solid middle of the rotation starters in Seattle.

Last week, I corresponded on twitter with a couple of acquaintances that are Dodger fans, and they both estimated that a deal for Harang would take something along the lines of Mike Carp/Eric Thames and a decent pitching prospect like Jordan Shippers. Capuano would probably take a little more in return and Lilly may take a little less. If that is an accurate representation of what LA wants in return, it could be a good deal for Seattle. The Mariner organization has a plethora of subpar corner outfielders that would not be missed.

The bigger issue with one of these deals is contracts. Each of these players is locked into a substantial and overpriced contract. In 2012, Lilly will make 12 million, while Harang will receive 14 million over the next two seasons, and Capuano will get 12 million in ’13 and ’14. In theory, Seattle would get some financial help from LA if they acquired Lilly or even Harang, but if that isn’t possible, Capuano would probably be the only of the three pitchers that would be worth their salaries to Seattle.

Recent rumors have surfaced concerning Capuano that included losing Franklin Gutierrez. Considering the questions concerning Gutierrez’ health and ability, along with the fact that he has an unfavorable contract, this would be a good opportunity to receive a nice piece in return for a player with questionable value.

If a deal can’t be made with the Dodgers, Milwaukee may have an arm Seattle could be interested in with Mike Fiers. Most Seattle fans probably haven’t heard this name, but he appears to be a solid major league pitcher after one season. Last year, the 27 year-old threw 127.2 innings and posted a 3.09 FIP and 3.0 WAR. He averaged over a strikeout per inning in his first pro season along with a reasonable 2.54 BB/9. In addition, his .309 BABIP indicates that his numbers were not a fluke.

Milwaukee may not be willing to part with Fiers considering they too are short on starting pitching, but if Fiers is available, he should also be somewhat affordable in a trade. I wouldn’t expect any of our top prospects to be involved in a deal.

Jose Quintana is the last arm that I will highlight as a possible target for Seattle. The 24 year-old from Chicago would be the only lefty in Seattle’s starting rotation. There is nothing phenomenal about Quintana. He doesn’t strike out lots batters and he doesn’t have phenomenal control, but he’s a solid pitcher who got close to a 50% ground ball rate and nearly a 2 WAR in 2012. His skill set fits Seattle’s stellar defensive infield well and he would be a much needed lefty in the back of the rotation.

It is apparent that Seattle’s rotation needs help in the upcoming season, and these were just a few of the several possible trade targets. Keep an open for a deal, because its reasonable that Jack Z will make some sort of a move for a back of the rotation starter before pitchers and catcher report in Arizona.

I tried a similar project last month by trying to barter for Billy Butler, but I was unable to reach a deal. However, this time a deal was met. At the bottom, I will explain my rational for the trade.

Here are the actual trade talks. Again, I will interject my thoughts using italicized text.

Joel Condreay: Just looking at your organizational depth, it looks like you could use an infielder, so I’ll start with middle infielder Brad Miller. He should be ready to step into second base as soon as Infante’s contract expires at the end of the year.

I would probably throw in a young relief arm like Charlie Furbush since you could probably use a lefty in the pen if Coke is taking over as closer.

It would also probably take a young prospect you could dream on as well, since there aren’t any real holes to be filled at the MLB level. Maybe 19 year old Guillermo Pimentel, who has insane power potential with a lot of refining to do. (I have essentially given up on Pimentel as a prospect.)

So I’ll start with Porcello for Miller, Furbush, and Pimintel.

Brian Sakowski: Keep in mind I’m willing to move other pieces as well: I know Brennan Boesch has sparked at least moderate interest with the M’s.

Garcia hitting a single in the ALCS. Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

Joel Condreay: Boesch doesn’t spark much in me. Seattle already has plenty of fringy outfielders.

I will be inquiring on Avisail Garcia at some point, though. (I really like Garcia. He has five-tool potential and is just 21 years old.)

Brian Sakowski: We’re interested in middle infielders, yes, but only ones who can play SS.  Miller is a nice piece, but I’m not sold on him as an everyday player.  We’re more interested in Nick Franklin, who we believe has a better chance to stick at SS.  (While I would prefer to give up Miller over Franklin, I feel fairly comfortable losing Franklin in the right circumstances considering the good depth the organization has at the position.)

We’re intrigued by Pimentel, but we already have essentially his clone in Steven Moya. At the moment, we’re also in the market for a late innings reliever.  I don’t want Furbush, you can have him.

So, here’s our counteroffer:

Rick Porcello and Avisail Garcia for Nick Franklin, Tom Wilhelmsen, Casper Wells, and Carter Capps. (I believe that Garcia is more likely to succeed than Franklin and has more positional value to Seattle than Franklin. Wells is nothing more than a fourth outfielder who can hit lefties a bit, and bullpen arms are pretty easy to replenish. However, I didn’t want to lose to young arms at the same time.)

Joel Condreay: I actually really like this deal for the most part.

The one thing is that I can’t dismantle my bullpen like that right now. I want to switch out Shawn Kelly for Tom Wilhelmsen. Kelly won’t embarrass batters like Tom will, but he will be a reliable arm in the pen.

Considering your lack of rotation depth, I can toss in someone like Hector Noesi or DJ Mitchell.

Brian Sakowski: Ok. We’re really kind of dead set on getting Wilhelmsen, but at the risk of destroying your bullpen, we’re willing to drop Capps from the deal if you toss in Victor Sanchez and Hector Noesi.

So the proposal would be: Rick Porcello and Avisail Garcia for Nick Franklin, Tom Wilhelmsen, Casper Wells, Victor Sanchez, and Hector Noesi. (There was no way that I would be giving up a second good prospect like Sanchez in this deal.)

Joel Condreay: That seems a bit steep. Instead of Sanchez, I’ll offer Jordan Shippers.

So here it is: Porcello and Garcia for Franklin, Wilhelmsen, Wells, Shippers, and Noesi.

Brian Sakowski:  I’m not a big fan of Shippers.  We have several fringe lefties already. (Personally, I think he may be underestimating Shippers.) What about Brandon Maurer? (Don’t worry, I never even considered putting Maurer in this deal.)

Joel Condreay: Well Maurer will have a decent shot at making the baseball America top 100 this year, so that’s not going to work. How do you feel about Anthony Fernandez?

Brian Sakowski: I’m a fan of Fernandez.  I’ll do that deal if you’d like.

Porcello and Garcia for Franklin, Wilhelmsen, Wells, Fernandez, and Noesi.

Joel Condreay: You got yourself a deal, sir!

There it is: Rich Porcello and Avisail Garcia for Nick Franklin, Tom Wilhelmsen, Casper Wells, Anthony Fernandez, and Hector Noesi.

Admittedly, the deal doesn’t look great on paper, but don’t rush to judgment just yet.

Let’s take a look at Porcello. On the surface, he looks like a 3-4 starter, but I think he is more than that. His 2.9 WAR last year was comparable to players like Jered Weaver, Yovani Gallardo, Ryan Vogelsong, and C.J. Wilson.

Take a look at this blind comparison:

As you can see, Porcello is slightly worse in his strikeouts and walks, but his xFIP is a bit better. Overall, these two

May 16, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Rick Porcello (48) pitches in the first inning against the Minnesota Twins at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

pitchers are quite similar. The mystery player is CY Young finalist, Jered Weaver. Granted, Weaver didn’t deserve to be a finalist, but he was nevertheless.

Porcello has also gotten a bit unlucky over the course of his career. Last year his BABIP was .344 and his LOB% was 69%. As soon as those numbers move to reasonable levels, his ERA should drop significantly. The thing especially impressive about Porcello is his 52.3 career GB%. Last year, he was fifth in the American League in the category. The ability to get ground balls will fit especially well in Seattle.

Considering he is just 24 years old, I would say that Rick Porcello could be a solid starter in the Mariner rotation for years to come. We need a piece in the rotation, and he is the perfect solution. He is certainly preferable to Jason Vargas.

As for the prospects, I think that Seattle needs Garcia more than Franklin. Franklin has caused considerable concern with his struggles against lefties, and his glove may not even be able to stick at shortstop. He hasn’t shown great power in the upper end of the farm system either. Considering these things as well as the fact that Brad Miller is just as likely, if not more likely, to become a solid major league player, I would say that getting Garcia back for him is an excellent deal for Seattle.

Garcia, on the other hand, has already hit at the MLB level. As the 21 year-old continues to age and mature, he will only get better. He has 25/25 potential. Seattle’s farm system lacks outfield prospects with power, so Garcia could be a real difference maker. I know that most prospect lists don’t agree with me, but I think that Avisail Garcia is a better prospect for Seattle than Franklin is.

Losing Wilhelmsen was difficult, but with Capps and Pryor in the bullpen, I think the closer role will be filled quickly.

Please give me your thoughts on the deal in the comment section below.