Back in November, I wrote about the importance of improving the current staff before the Big Three are ready. I was hoping for a number 2 starter to bump everyone down a slot in the rotation, and then the team went in the opposite direction, trading away Jason Vargas. That left us here:

1) Felix

2) Iwakuma

3) Ramirez

4) Beavan

5) Noesi? Furbush? Hultzen?

Counting on any more than zero WAR from Noesi, et. al. would have been somewhat optimistic, considering Noesi lit up the leaderboards for -0.7 fWAR last season, Furbush hasn’t started in more than a year, and Hultzen gave up a walk rate of 14% in the high minors last season. The addition of Saunders to the rotation adds an expected 2-ish wins for the M’s this season because he is effectively replacing a steaming pile of manure—from a baseball perspective, anyway.

Getting to know Saunders a little better basically requires that you remember that guy mentioned up there named Vargas. Check out the similarities over the last three seasons:

William Perlman/THE STAR-LEDGER via USA TODAY Sports

Saunders throws a little harder, though neither throws fireballs, and he gives up fewer fly balls. Vargas had a slightly better K/BB ratio, and edged Saunders in ERA and park-adjusted xFIP. In the end, both contributed equal amounts of WAR to his team. But we have to remember that Vargas was playing in a ballpark practically built for him. While WAR does account for ballparks to a certain extent, it’s not tailored to adjust for individual players. Vargas had a special relationship with SafeCo that should have made his wife jealous. Even if we account for moving in the fences, Saunders can probably still expect to get extra value out of the marine air, solid outfield defense, and whatever other voodoo is at work in SafeCo.

And hey, if the salary reports are true, Saunders will cost less than Vargas this season. So it’s kind of like we got a cost-controlled Kendrys Morales,  along with a cheaper Jason Vargas, for Jason Vargas. If you can’t tell, I really like this signing.

I find the Felix extension—if it’s true—an interesting case study in how a particular team’s situation can make potentially make a difference in both how negotiations are conducted and how fans perceive the result. But before I get into that, let’s get right to the data. Below I have the King’s year-by-year values to this point—taking the average of Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference WAR. The last column is his approximate free-agent value over that time.

Here, I have attempted to estimate some reasonable boundaries for how he will perform going forward. In the favorable outcome, I have also allowed for 7% inflation. In the less favorable outcome—including an injury shortened year in an arbitrarily chosen 2016—I only accounted for 5% inflation. I hope this gives us some reasonable boundaries for the expected value of his contract. Notice that I’m considering this a 7-year contract for $175M because for all intents and purposes, that’s what it is.

I would consider the left option to be a little optimistic. Though our King is only 26 years old, he has already logged 7+ seasons of more than 1600 innings. His arm’s age is probably a little older than his birth date would imply. The outcome on the right might be a little pessimistic, but perhaps better accounts for injury and lost value. But if we look at these boundaries—which are admittedly guesses at best—the contract doesn’t look all that bad.

Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

There’s one major issue, though, that I haven’t discussed. Hernandez signed* this contract for what we believe to be $175M two years before free agency. There is currently no competition for his services. He said he wants to stay in Seattle, and the front office said they want him to stay in Seattle. Hernandez and his agent, Alan Nero, shouldn’t have had any leverage in the negotiations. Except they obviously did. Felix is getting free-agent money and free-agent length during a time when there’s no free-agenty competition for his services.

Last off-season, Matt Cain signed an extension one year before free agency. Cain, 27 at the time with 7+ seasons of wear and tear, got six years for $127M—$21M per season—with a vesting option for the seventh year. Vesting options aren’t quite as team-friendly as team options, but still team-friendly for sure.  Cain is probably only slightly less valuable than Hernandez. In fact, Hernandez’s top B-R comparable is Cain. Over the last five seasons, Cain’s ERA in his pitcher-friendly ballpark has been 3.09. Hernandez’s in his pitcher-friendly park, 2.92. It’s hard to measure Cain by fWAR because he defies it, but bWAR suggests Cain is worth about one less win per season. That, perhaps justifies his $21M-per-year contract (with vesting option) to Felix’s $25M-per-year contract (with extra year). Or maybe both contracts—being the largest of their kind—simply represent the high end, and they’re both bad deals for the team.

In the end, the contract is not awful, and I’m as glad as you that the King’s court will be in session every fifth night in Seattle for a long time. It just hurts a little that we couldn’t get a more team-friendly deal. Maybe one that doesn’t use up 30% of the team’s payroll until my hair goes grey. It seems like the fans’ decade of suffering might have given Nero the leverage he needed to strike a player-friendly deal. But I quibble…

*Pending

Mar 19, 2012; Peoria, AZ, USA; Members of the Peoria Stadium grounds crew work to prep the field for the spring training game between the Chicago Cubs and Seattle Mariners. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Ah, the wait for Spring Training to start, when we can begin to speculate about how the Seattle Mariners will do this season…why does it always seem like an eternity? If you’re like me, and you’re getting antsy for some baseball action, here are some suggestions for activities to do while you’re waiting for Spring Training – and ultimately the baseball season – to kick into gear.

1. Check out Shipwrecked: A People’s History of the Seattle Mariners by Jon Wells. This book was written for Mariners fans who are interested in reading some of the more anecdotal stories about the Mariners’ history. Just think, you might pick up something you didn’t know about the Ms before.
2. Get outside and throw a baseball. If you’re having severe baseball withdrawal symptoms, you may even want to grab a few of your friends and play a game of pick-up baseball over at the park.
3. Out of Left Field: How the Mariners Made Baseball Fly in Seattleby Art Thiel is another book worth reading. This is particularly true if you’re interested in how the team has gotten to where it is today.
4. Watch a DVD of the greatest moments in Mariners’ history. This can fill the void…but only for so long. It’s great in a pinch, though, if you need to see some Mariners action.
5. Catch up on your blog reading. In addition to reading SoDo Mojo, you can check out some of the other blogs around FanSided. I know, it’s hard to imagine there are other sports outside baseball, but there are!
6. Watch some college baseball games. College baseball opens next month. The guys are training now. I’ll be following what the Michigan State Spartans are doing over on Spartan Avenue. You may want to check out what the U Washington Huskies are doing.
7. Check out some of the world baseball games. Australia has baseball. The Winter Leagues are mostly over, but you may be able to catch replays on the MLB network. The Caribbean Series will run from February 1-7.
8. If you live in Seattle, be a tourist in your own city – if not, learn something about Seattle. Seattle has a lot of cool things going on beyond grunge music, EMP, the Space Needle, and Safeco Field. Get out there and explore a little bit. If you enjoy beer, why not visit Pyramid Alehouse or Pike Place Brewery? If you enjoy art, visit the Asian Art Museum. If you like music, get out there and see a live show or two.
9. Determine which games you will see and get your tickets. Sure, you can wait until that day when you think “I want to go check out the Mariners today.” There is something to be said about spontaneity. But if you know you’ll have a weekend off in advance, why not go ahead and get your tickets. Don’t forget about the Minor League teams. Going to one of their games can be just as fun.
10. Learn something new that’s not baseball-related. As hard as it is to believe, there are other things out there. Learn how to cook, fly a kite, speak Klingon – whatever you are interested in. Not only can you pick up a good skill but you can kick booty playing Trivial Pursuit or impress your friends at your next night out.

What are you doing while waiting for Spring Training to begin?