Option 1:

Nick Franklin

Yes, Franklin is only 22 and has had some large questions posed about his defense, including by me. But what he has shown early in AAA Tacoma is incredible, especially for a 22-year-old switch-hitting middle infielder. His triple slash line is .325/.449/ .500, but what I like more and what shows progress from last year is his 14% K percentage and 16% BB percentage. The K issues that he has struggled with in the past may be past him, but he has only had 11 games this year, so small sample size and all. He needs more seasoning, but if Andino and Ryan keep playing awful, Franklin is the closest in the system to playing for Seattle.

Option 2:

Carlos Triunfel

The former prospect has become more of a forgotten player as he sits in Tacoma, still struggling with plate discipline and hitting non-fastballs. But he has shown a hot bat to start this year, even hitting for the cycle earlier this year, and he does play shortstop, a seemingly important qualification at this point. The reason why Franklin gets the nod over Triunfel: He is younger, better at the plate and better defensively.

Option 3

Brad Miller

Full Disclosure: I think Miller will be the Mariners starting shortstop in the next two years. But for now, he is in AA Jackson hitting the ball really hard. That last sentence holds the reason why he is not option 2 and why he could very easily be option 1. He has not hit above the AA level ever and he is not as talented as Manny Machado, so don’t make that justification. But he is hitting .286/ .351/ .500 in Jackson in 18 games, which is a slightly larger sample than Franklin, but not large enough to put him over Triunfel.

Ryan is still the best overall shortstop in the Mariner organization, with Franklin second and Andino third. Andino is in Seattle because he can play 2B, SS and 3B. Not because he can hit .275 or even .250. Ryan is in Seattle because he plays excellent defense, not because he has ever been a very good hitter or even a good hitter. The Mariners can bench him for awhile to let him figure out his swing, but the team, right now, is better when Andino is on the bench and Ryan is playing shortstop.

AL Central:

First Place: Detroit Tigers

Victor Martinez, who will return to the Tiger lineup this season.

After going to the World Series last year, the Tigers brought back almost everyone from their team. On the offensive side, their only real loss was Delmon Young which is pretty inconsequential considering his -0.7 WAR last year. Young was replaced by Torii Hunter; a significant upgrade. Victor Martinez, who missed all of 2012 with an injury, will be back for the 2013 season. On the pitching side, Detroit is bringing back every pitcher that threw at least 20 innings in 2012 with the lone exception of Jose Valverde. The bullpen may still be in trouble considering that their projected closer has never thrown a pitch in the major leagues, but the Tigers should win a lot of games anyways.

Second Place: Cleveland Indians

The Indian’s offense is pretty intriguing to me. They have some speed, some power, some on-base ability, and some depth in the batting order. Their real problem will be the pitching staff. None of their projected starters posted a FIP of below 4.00 last season. In reality, even if Cleveland did have a competitive pitching staff, their offense wouldn’t be able to compete with Detroit’s anyways. The success of this team will hinge on their rotation, but if Cleveland can get a decent year out of some of their starters, they could accumulate around 85 wins; still not enough to break the monopoly Detroit has on the division.

Third Place: Chicago White Sox

This could have gone to either Chicago or Kansas City, but Chicago pulled it out in the end. I really don’t feel convinced by either team. The Sox’ run production depends on some aging and unreliable players. Paul Konerko is 37, Adam Dunn will display light tower power but will also strikeout 200 times this year, Dayan Viciedo has only played one full season in the MLB and also has lots of questions surrounding him, and Alex Rios hasn’t strung two good years together since 2007 and 2008. On the other hand, I like their pitching staff. In my opinion, Chris Sale is one of the most underrated players in baseball. His numbers have been comparable to, and oftentimes better than, great southpaws like C.C. Sabathia, Cole Hamels, Clayton Kershaw, and Gio Gonzalez. It will be close, but I expect the White Sox to squeak into third in the division.

Fourth Place: Kansas City Royals

Newly acquired James Shields. Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Before researching these teams, I expected to place the Royals in third or even second place in the division, but the more I saw of them, the more disappointed I was. The Royals acquired James Shields this offseason, but the two through five spots in the rotation are disasters. Wade Davis, their projected fourth starter, has been a good reliever, but has never had much success as a starter. Their other three starters posted FIPs of 5.10, 5.63, and 4.73 in 2012. Only one of those pitchers even had a WAR above 1.0. It could be an ugly year for the Royals’ rotation. Assuming that guys like Eric Hosmer, Jeff Francoeur, and Mike Moustakas have rebound years at the plate, the offense will score a fair amount of runs, but certainly not enough to support the abysmal pitching staff.

Fifth Place: Minnesota Twins

Not much to say here. The offense has a bit of pop, but not enough to compete with the rest of the division. To make matters worse, the pitching staff may be even worse than Kansas City’s. The Twins have plenty of help on the way in guys like Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Alex Myer, and Brandon Gibson, but until they arrive in Minneapolis, the Twins won’t be winning many games.

AL East:

First Place: Toronto Blue Jays

The east will be an extremely competitive division. I almost never buy into teams that get really good really fast like the Blue Jays did this past offseason. I didn’t think that either the Angels or Marlins would have much success last season, but for some reason, this Toronto team is different. The biggest difference is that this is a very multi-dimensional team; they do everything well. This team has guys who can hit for average, guys who can hit for power, and guys with good speed. They have the pieces to both play small ball and hit the ball out of the ballpark. The pitching staff has great depth. In addition, the roster has a nice combination of youth and leadership. This is a very well constructed roster, and I think they will win a very good AL East.

Second Place: Boston Red Sox

I think that the Bosox have been overlooked a bit in east. The three players they added to the lineup this offseason, Jonny Gomes, Shane Victorino, and Mike Napoli, each have wRC+ of 109 or better over the last three seasons. These names are added to an already solid offense with guys like Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, and David Ortiz. And don’t forget Will Middlebrooks, who emerged as an offensive threat last year by posting a .835 OPS in 75 games last year. If they stay healthy, the Sox will score a lot of runs this year. Add that to a solid pitching staff, and the Red Sox could contend in the East.

Third Place: Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. The reigning Cy Young winner, David Price, is followed by Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Alex Cobb, and Jeff Niemann. Both their fourth and fifth starters posted a FIP below 3.70 last year. The offense is highlighted by Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist, and rising star Desmond Jennings. The offense won’t be great, but their pitching staff should be able to pull them to 85 wins.

Fourth Place: New York Yankees

The 2012 Yankee offense that scored the second most runs in baseball last year has been torn apart by injuries and free agency this offseason. Nick Swisher signed with Cleveland, Russell Martin signed with the Pirates, Raul Ibanez

Curtis Granderson after getting hit by the pitch that put him on the DL. Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

signed with Seattle, Eric Chavez signed with Arizona, Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira will be out until May, Alex Rodriguez will miss most of the season, and Derek Jeter, although likely to be healthy for opening day, may not be the same player he was due to age and injury. On the pitching side of things, C.C. Sabathia could be slowed by an injury of his own, and Michael Pineda will likely miss a large portion of the season. A healthy Yankee team would be good enough to win the division, but the skeleton of the 2012 team being thrown on the field will not make the cut. Expect a relatively disappointing year from the Bronx Bombers in 2012.

Fifth Place: Baltimore Orioles

The last place team in the East could easily go .500 this year. The Orioles are a bit of a mystery team to me, mainly due to their pitching staff. Their current rotation is made up of Jason Hammel, Wei-Yin Chen, Chris Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez, and Brian Matusz. Like the Athletics, there isn’t much experience there, and of the experience they do have, none of those names have ever strung together two good seasons in a row. Even last year, only one of those pitchers exceeded 120 innings pitched. Every pitcher in this rotation is the equivalent of a typical 3-5 starter in the MLB. My main concern for the Baltimore offense is their ability to get on base. They were 23^rd in baseball in OBP last year, and that was before losing Mark Reynolds who led the team in BB% and was second in OBP. The offensive output will greatly depend on Adam Jones and Chris Davis. Jones has only had one season with a WAR above 4.0 in his career and Davis has only had one 2.0 WAR. For me, there are too many question marks in Baltimore for them to compete for the AL East crown.

September 30, 2012; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Athletics catcher George Kottaras (14) tags out Seattle Mariners first baseman Justin Smoak (17) at the plate during the second inning at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports

With just a little over two weeks left before Spring Training’s official start (there are some optional start dates for pitchers, catchers, and injured players) for players not in the Baseball World Classic a week away, most of what the Seattle Mariners management is up to is making sure they get everyone signed and official before the March 11th deadline. Around the Major Leagues, its looking like the PED controversy has cropped up in a big way again starting with a former Mariner turned New York Yankees player.

• Mariners have signed 10 players to contracts, bringing the total number of signed players on the 40-man roster to 24. The ten players signed are: Justin Smoak, Lucas Luetge, Chance Ruffin, Blake Beavan, Casper Wells, Eric Thames, Carlos Peguero, Julio Morban, Kyle Seager, and Francisco Martinez.
• Alex Rodriguez, or A-Rod if you prefer, the New York Yankees’ most controversial player of the moment has started up another controversy. According to the Miami Times, A-Rod allegedly purchased Human Growth Hormone from Florida wellness consultant Tony Bosch. We’ll have to keep our eyes out for what transpires in this latest blow-up of PED use.
• Kevin Millwood, pitcher for the Mariners last season, has called it quits after 16 seasons in the Major Leagues. This two-game no hitter pitcher will be going out on  high note after neither the Atlanta Braves nor the Tampa Bay Rays expressed interest in picking him up this year. He will be heading home to Gainsville, GA.
• The Mariners avoided arbitration talks with reliever Shawn Kelley and signed a $935,500 contract with the pitcher.
• The Mariners went ahead and officially signed Kelly Shoppach.
• In big AL West news, the Oakland Athletics acquired Jed Lowrie and Fernando Rodriguez in a five-man deal with the Houston Astros. They sent the Astros Chris Carter, Brad Peacock, and Max Stassi in exchange.

What do you think about the news over the weekend?