Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

When the Mariners swapped Doug Fister to Detroit for four young players in 2011, it seemed like the Mariners had gotten a decent haul for a mid-to-back end starter. Fast forward to today and the package doesn’t look so great. While Fister has taken a step forward and become a #2 starter, the Mariners package seems to consist of mainly role players. Sure, Charlie Furbush had a breakthrough year out of the pen in 2012, but his potential as a starting pitcher has all but vanished. 22-year-old Francisco Martinez was over-matched in Double-A last season – hitting .227 with 2 home-runs in 402 plate appearances and showing few signs of translating the potential that some scouts saw in him. Prized relief prospect Chance Ruffin took a major step backward in 2012, lacking the stuff that made him a first round pick in 2010. The final piece of the package was Casper Wells, whose future in the organization is likely to be equally questionable.

Casper Wells brings a lot of athleticism to the table and it’s easy to see why the front office targeted him in the Fister deal. Wells has one of the stronger arms in the game, the range to play centerfield in a pinch, and very impressive pull power from the right side. However, Wells has been extremely inconsistent and hasn’t really gotten the benefit of regular playing time from manager Eric Wedge. In the first couple months, Wells only got 53 plate appearances and then was soon demoted to Tacoma. When he was finally given regular playing time in July, Wells disappointed with a .226/.293/.396 line during that month.

Now the Mariners have gone out and signed a possible replacement in Jason Bay, and could possibly add one or two more outfielders to the mix. If this is the case, then Casper Wells could very well be on his way out of Seattle or he’s going to have to fight hard to make the 25-man roster in the spring.

As a right-handed outfielder, Bay is currently the main competition for Wells on the roster. Let’s take a look at how their skills have stacked up over the past three years.

Based on these numbers, Wells and Bay have quite similar profiles. The advantages for Bay include his veteran leadership and slightly better contact and discipline skills. Meanwhile, Wells should be in his prime and has brought much more productive power and defense in the past three years. As you can see in the profile above, Wells seems to be average-to-above average in every area except for contact. In 2012, Wells ranked 256th in contact rate out of the 265 players who had 300 or more plate appearances. This has been a huge area of concern for Wells and it should be noted that his contact rate has declined significantly in each big league season. On a positive note, it was reported that Wells got Lasik surgery this off-season which hopefully can help him improve in this area.

Although I think Wells can bring more with the glove, I think it’ll be interesting to see if Bay can find some of the elite power that he had as recently as 2009. Overall, it’ll be up to Bay and Wells to duke it out in the spring and prove who can contribute more to the 2013 team. If the Mariners add another outfielder or two, Wells could quickly become an outsider and may very well have a new team come April.

Comment below: Can you see Wells being a factor in 2013? How about a Thames/Wells platoon in right field?

Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

On the first day of the Winter Meetings, rumors have been circulating about the Mariners and Royals discussing a trade involving Billy Butler. As badly as the Mariners need established hitters, consider me highly skeptical about the chances of this being a fair deal. Based on advanced plate discipline, contact, and power numbers using a skills comparison system, the following are the most similar right-handed hitters to Billy Butler over the past three years:

A nice group of players, to be sure, but would you surrender a top prospect for any of them? Almost certainly not, and if the Mariners decide to make a trade for Butler, one of the top 5 prospects in the system are most likely going to be in the deal. Add to the fact that Butler has no additional value apart from his bat and you could argue that some of the above players are superior to Butler. Freese, Hardy, Ruiz, Molina, Peralta, Ramirez and Rolen provide similar offense but also can play the field.

It’s been said by many people this off-season, but the Mariners are well-stocked with DH/1B types – Smoak, Montero, Jaso, and Carp. It might be worth taking a flyer on a cheap option like Travis Hafner or Lance Berkman. Carlos Lee is on the above list as a comparable to Butler and he’d probably even agree to a minor league deal. But it just doesn’t make sense to sacrifice a top prospect for a player as one-dimensional as Butler.

Sure, some fans might think of Butler as being this generation’s Edgar Martinez. Butler is only 26 after all and Edgar only became a full-time player at 27. However, Butler hasn’t reached Edgar’s level of offensive dominance yet and there’s no guarantee he ever will. That being said, they do have some intriguing similarities. Here’s a comparison just for fun:

If I’m Jack Zduriencik and co., I’m looking for a player with defensive value like Alex Gordon or Will Myers. They have much more value going forward than Butler does and would be much more worthy of one of the “big three” pitching prospects. Either of those players could solidify rightfield in Safeco for years to come.

According to FanGraphs, Butler has only been worth more than 3 WAR in a season once and that was in 2012 at 3.2. Butler’s offensive production just doesn’t outweigh his shortcomings defensively and on the basepaths. If the trade package was headlined by Brandon Maurer, then that’d be a different story. That’s just not likely to happen. Improving the offense is important, but the Mariners need to be protective of their elite prospects. Any one of their top five should only be moved in a trade that brings back a significant long-term piece. Butler just doesn’t fit that mold.

Credit: Chris Humphreys-US PRESSWIRE

Jon Heyman reported earlier today that Arizona is unlikely to trade Justin Upton this winter. Given all the persistent rumors over the past two years, it’s puzzling why the Diamondbacks continue to publicly market Upton and then make no move. While it’s good for assessing and possibly raising his trade value, it also has to be damaging the relationship the team has with Upton. Unless the Rangers are willing to trade Elvis Andrus or Jurickson Profar, it is doubtful that the Diamondbacks will get the talent they seek in a potential deal.

Personally, I think trading Andrus for Upton makes a whole lot of sense for the Rangers, especially if they’re not bringing back Josh Hamilton in the outfield. Profar appears to be very ready to make an impact in the majors, and pushing Ian Kinsler to the outfield to make room for Profar doesn’t seem like the best idea. As a Mariner fan, I can’t say I want to see Upton as an opponent in our division going forward, though.

The second part of the news story is the one that Mariners fans will be most interested in – Heyman reported that Upton has added Seattle to his no-trade list. Does that mean the dream of obtaining Upton is over? Not necessarily. Actually, it’s fairly common for a player to add highly interested or major market clubs to their list in hopes of getting a bonus to waive their clause. Upton is probably well aware of the Mariners interest and wants leverage in a possible deal. That being said, there obviously could still be a chance that he just has no interest in playing in Seattle.

If you’re the Mariners, would you be willing to give up a package consisting of at least one of Kyle Seager or Nick Franklin to get Upton? What if they wanted Seager, Ryan and some prospects? It might be decent from the Mariners perspective, but the Diamondbacks might be holding out for more elite talent.