Free agent Nick Swisher/Credit: William Perlman/THE STAR-LEDGER via US PRESSWIRE

In an off season that is more vital than in years past, none of the free agent first basemen make sense in the Seattle Mariners future plans.

There is a number of reasons I reached this conclusion. Some are because of age, some due to money or a combination of both.

There is one name I’d like to see Jack Z. make a run at, but more for a outfield/DH option. That is Nick Swisher. He has the potential to be a de facto extra hitting coach for the young hitters in the lineup. His presence might help young hitters Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak and Jesus Montero refine their approach. Just having someone else to talk hitting and approach with, someone who has dug through slumps and learned from them might be a good change. The M’s clubhouse has been without that type of leader for a while.

Of course Swish could plug in at first to give Smoak or Montero an occasional day off.

Now onto some of the other big name free agent first basemen. That’s what the Hot Stove is all about, dreaming of big names.

Free agent first basemen Adam LaRoche/Credit: Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE

Adam LaRoche is the player on the list who is most intriguing to me. He’s 32, so he should still have years of productivity left before he declines. There’s no good reason for the Mariners not to attempt to sign him, but I don’t see him making Safeco his launching pad, as a Mariner at least. He’s coming off a great year and will be sought after, so LaRoche will have some choices. I don’t see Seattle as number one in this race.

Carlos Pena could be had at a bargain price coming off a sub-par year for the Rays. His left-handed bat could help the M’s, but the question is if his best years are behind him. At the right price he might be worth a flier as a short-term solution, but I don’t see him as the bat to build this offense around anymore.

First baseman James Loney/Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

James Loney has not met his expectations he had coming up as a young Dodgers prospect. For someone who will be 29 shortly after opening day and seven years big league experience it is unlikely he will figure it out if he hasn’t done so yet. I’m not high on Loney and hope the Mariners pass on him.

Free agent Mike Napoli/Credit: Jim Cowsert-US PRESSWIRE

Mike Napoli is primarily a 1B and DH at this point in his career, but he could catch in a pinch if needed to. His power is awesome, but he is not a very well rounded hitter. His average–aside from 2011 when he hit .320–has been around the .240-.270 range. The discouraging and frustrating thing about Napoli is that he has struck out 450 times between 2009-’12, averaging 113 K’s per year in that span. Napoli knows AL West pitching, spending his first five years in a Halos uniform before spending the last two years with Texas. Napoli could plug in well to the Mariners lineup, however I see little chance of the Mariners landing him.

Beyond the first baseman listed, I don’t see any fits for the Mariners roster. What do you think?

Of course there are other options aside from free agency. Next week I will take a look at some first base trade options–realistic and otherwise–that the Mariners could pursue this off season.

Some may see my views as being a little bold, so please feel free to debate in the comments and share your thoughts.

Here’s five things to consider.

1. Safeco Field is a pitchers park. This is unlikely to change by moving in the fences next season. According to MLBTradeRumors.com’s Non-Tender Candidate series, Hochevar had a 43.6% ground ball rate in 2012. He struck out a league average 6.9 K/9 IP, while averaging 3.0 BB/9 IP.
2. This would allow the Mariners to protect their investment in the “Big Three”, considering Paxton is not traded and how much credence there is in the trade rumors linking him to the Royals. As fans we should hope not to have Kerry Wood or Mark Prior type injuries to the young core. If they flame out because they can’t get big league hitters out that would be better than never knowing because of injury. Just my thinking.
3. As a non-tender candidate, Hochevar would come cheap with the possibility of a high reward. No one figured in 1996 that Jamie Moyer would be such a good pick up. In recent history, Oliver Perez was seen as an experiment. He paid off in the M’s bullpen in 2012. My suggestion, pick up Hochevar at a one year incentive laden deal with a 2014 option. If he doesn’t work out then the M’s wouldn’t be out much if they decided to later trade him or designate him for assignment.
4. As pointed out in the comments to my Letter to Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik , Jason Vargas home/road splits are a point of concern. Vargas is great at Safeco Field. He had good trade value at the deadline last year, but given his splits, will it remain what it was? I’m not necessarily saying Vargas should be traded, but if he could net a young bat with team control it would be worth into at least looking into.
5. Beyond the “Big Three” there are few pitching options in the organization for the rotation barring a free agent signing and/or trade. The outfield depth could be used as trade options, but the tradability and major league talent of some of them are questionable at best without depleting the outfield for 2013 and beyond.

I’m a hometown fan, but not a disillusioned “homer”. The Mariners are more than a year off from contending again. The “rebuilding by spending” has been tried and failed. Now let the kids develop on the farm and sign some stop gap help for a year before rushing the arms to Seattle.

I welcome your thoughts and comments. What do you think?

Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

Dec 6, 2011; Dallas, TX, USA; Seattle Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik answers questions on the MLB.com set during the MLB winter meetings at Hilton Anatole. Credit: Matthew Emmons-US PRESSWIRE

Dear Jack Zduriencik,

I have been a Seattle Mariners fan most of my life. That means I have loyally rooted for losing teams. With every year that has gone by I’ve come to understand how fans of the Chicago Cubs fans feel and come to expect the pain of always anxiously waiting for “next year.”

Mr. Zduriencik, I don’t place all the blame on you. I understand that ownership has given you a budget significantly less than your predecessor Bill Bavasi worked with. I understand it took some time to undo the mess he left you with. I appreciate that you are not like a politician that blames your predecessor.

But the time has come Mr. Zduriencik. This is your team now and it has had your stamp on it for quite some time now. I know, you don’t play the games. You chose the players who do though. Chone Figgins is your guy. Miguel Olivo is your guy. Justin Smoak looked like another flop, but Seattle fans have largely decided he “might” deserve one more chance after showing some flashes of the player he was expected to be when he came over in the Cliff Lee deal.

There’s still a lot of question marks going forward. The answers may not be known for another two or three years. Maybe the fans will stick around that long to see if the prospects and young major league players have what it takes to play at the big league level. But what if they don’t? Attendance dropped at Safeco Field again this year.

You weren’t here in the Kingdome days. So let me tell you a little about them. The team lost on average 88 to 100 games most years. Hmmm. Sounds familiar. The crowds were so tiny, 8000-ish. A crowd of 15,000 was a good sized crowd. That sounds like Safeco Field–when King Felix wasn’t holding court–in 2012.

So to prevent the current incarnation of the Mariners from becoming retreads of the first 18 years of the franchise some things need to happen. Let me be the first to say I hope they do, because I am not calling for you to be fired. You’re a good baseball mind Jack.

First, the obvious. Dustin Ackley, Jesus Montero, Justin Smoak, Michael Saunders, and Kyle Seager need to prove in 2013 that they are major league caliber players and not replacement level AAAA players. If any of them are unable to do so next year that sets the rebuilding process back. How far depends on how many of the above mentioned players are viable major leaguers.

Second. You need to develop an insurance plan for these young players and create some competition for ’13 and beyond. Signing some veterans to help out in the clubhouse and set an example for the green players is a step in the right direction. Some cheap options maybe Orlando Hudson on a one-year incentive laden deal. Take a look at some of the non-tender candidates, such as Luke Hochevar, who would benefit from Safeco Field’s dimensions, even with the coming changes to the fences next year. Rumor has it that the Atlanta Braves may not tender Jair Jurjens a contract. These three guys are low risk, high reward type players that can be had on the cheap.

Third. Much of the future success is predicated on the promise of the Big Three. A word of advice. Don’t rush them like the Cubs did with Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. 2013 isn’t likely to be a year the team contends, so go out and get some stop gap, back of the rotation starters like Hochevar or Jurjens. Avoid overpaying for mediocre pitchers coming off career years, like Cardinals righty Kyle Lohse; (see Carlos Silva for example).

You see Jack, unfortunately, while Seattle is a sports town, we only get behind our teams and go to the ballpark when our teams are doing well. While you played no part in it, that was the rationale behind Safeco Field that ownership gave. If it was built, ownership said, it would allow the team to spend the money to put together a winner that the city deserves. Look at 1995-2001. Fans came. To the Kingdome even. They chose to spend what few nice days per year we have in this city inside, when the game should have been outside.

I’m still a Mariners fan Jack. Through and through. While it’s tough to watch, I still follow them religiously, even when they lost 101 games a few years ago. I didn’t tune in as much on TV or the radio, but I followed them in box scores. Box scores doesn’t create revenue though. If the diehards are tuning out, how does ownership expect the casual fan to get excited about the team?

This could be a baseball town Jack. It really could. But first it must contend. Or else this city will remain firmly in the grips of the Seahawks and Sounders.

In closing, I hope ownership wakes up and opens their wallets a bit. I sincerely hope that you follow some the advice I’ve given and a few years from now we can be celebrating our first trip to the World Series, instead of sitting at home and watching like we did tonight.

Best of luck Jack,

Sincerely,

A loyal Mariners fan,

Robb Saul