Sep 18, 2012; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners first baseman Justin Smoak (17) hits a single against the Baltimore Orioles during the 11th inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-US PRESSWIRE

Justin Smoak finished the season incredibly strong. Posting a OPS around 1.000 with 5 bombs certainly has more than a few ears perked, and even has some wondering if Smoak has finally figured it out. However, I come to issue a warning and bring up what may be becoming an alarming trend.

As most everyone is aware, September does not offer the same level of competition as the rest of the regular season. Rosters are flooded with minor league talent, pitchers are on their last leg, and teams with guaranteed playoff spots are running the kids out their along with those teams that have been eliminated. Smoak performed well at this point last season as well, after struggling the majority of the regular season. A free pass was issued however, due to some off the field issues. September is not the time to judge Justin Smoak on what he could be. As a matter of fact, lets delve a little bit deeper into this numbers and unearth their dirty little secrets.

At first glance, the competition against which Smoak hit these home runs is encouraging. With the likes of Zack Greinke, and C.J Wilson mixed in there one could easily assume that the power and ability is legitimate. However if you dig deeper, dusting past the surface you’ll begin to notice a few things. First of all, Mike Trout was quoted recently stating how difficult it was to stay focused after being eliminated from the race. While the HR of of Wilson was measured to be plenty by ESPN’s HR tracker, the one off of Greinke was assessed to be just enough and lucky. The previous three home runs were hit off less than elite pitching, late in the ballgame against a fatigued starter or non threatening reliever, in ball parks more hitter friendly than even the new and improved SafeCo field.

Smoak hasn’t discovered anything new, he is succeeding where he has succeeded before. He had already shown us the ability to crush minor league talent, but throughout the course of the season, when the arms are fresh, and the talent is legitimate, Smoak struggles. He will struggle again if given the opportunity to start next season, and who knows how far back he could set the Mariners back if he starts stringing together another season of horrible baseball. The Mariners have to look elsewhere, they have to find an upgrade over Justin Smoak. Because if they don’t, fans and the organization alike, are going to be severely disappointed.

With that in mind, the Mariners have a few gaps that they will need to fill in order to sport a competitive team next season. Various arguments could be made for several different positions, but for today we shall just focus on the bare minimum, the essential positions required to transform the Mariners into a playoff contender.

First Base

Smoak is done. You don’t have to label him a bust, you don’t have to apply any label to him for all I care, but for all intents and purposes his role as an everyday player in Seattle is over. The Mariners now have rather large hole to fill, and the internal options don’t exactly lean towards the robust. The Mariners basically have two options if they choose to go internal, Mike Carp or Jesus Montero. If the Mariners brass is serious about contending next season, then neither is a realistic option. Carp eliminates himself through his bat and Montero through his glove work, or at the very least his potential glove work. The Mariners  absolutely cannot look in house here, and exploring the trade market figures to offer the best results. Just throwing out three names to keep in the back of your mind for this offseason: Ike Davis, Justin Morneau, and Freddie Freeman.

Sep 16, 2012

Starting Pitcher

The answer here is rather simple, resign Iwakuma. Hisashi has been more than the Mariners could have hoped for, even with the early season banishment. The Mariners could look to upgrade past him but with Ramirez and Hultzen I don’t believe it would be necessary. If the Mariners let Iwakuma walk, they are going to have a rather large hole to fill and it isn’t going to be all that easy. The Mariners should thank their lucky stars that Iwakuma wants to come back at all, because lord knows after the treatment he received at the beginning of the year… Well lets just say I wouldn’t want to come back. All that being said there are quite a few interesting free agents this offseason. Zack Greinke, Dan Harden, and Anibal Sanchez all find themselves without a contract at the end of the season, but unless the Mariners plan on spending their entire budget on one of those arms, I heavily suggest making a strong push to resign Iwakuma.

Right Field

The Casper Wells/Eric Thames platoon is acceptable on a below average team, and while both players are likable guys, eventually reality will set it and a contender cannot survive running those two out there everyday. They both hold the potential to hit the ball a very long way, but that threat alone isn’t enough to keep you in the lineup. Searching for a consistent bat to insert into the outfield shouldn’t be entirely difficult as both the trade class and free agent class is swimming with options. Keep an eye on Nick Swisher, the Upton Brother, and Curtis Granderson (who would likely find his new home in LF with Saunders moving to RF) as the offseason unfolds.

• Lookout Landing covers the future for Iwakuma, and how he would prefer to stay with the Mariners.
• Pro Ball NW says it’s time to sit Justin Smoak.
• USS Mariner discusses Mike Zunino and his torrid minor league hitting.
• Prospect Insider covers the Mariners young core.