Fence Transplantation Follow Up


Our own J.J. Keller, as well as Mariners bloggers Jeff Sullivan and Dave Cameron, have already outlined the pros and cons of moving the fences in. They are all smart, and those are all articles you should read. I mostly just wanted to engage in some animated GIF-giving. It’ll be like Christmas in October.

It seems pretty clear that moving in the fences should help anyone who gets to hit, especially right-handers like Jesus Montero, Casper Wells and the up-and-coming Mike Zunino. It’s also pretty clear that pitchers won’t be too pleased, especially the likes of Jason Vargas and maybe Danny Hultzen—both left-handed hurlers.

Thanks to Texasleaguers.com, I compiled the spray charts for the 10 Mariners hitters this season with the most plate appearances. I put them into the animated GIF below, interleaving a pretty drawing of SafeCo’s dimensions that I made myself (as if you couldn’t tell.) If you focus on the left-field fences specifically, you can see some of the outs (in red) that were hit close to the wall. We can hypothesize that some of these would become homeruns next season in Seattle’s “new” ballpark.

This is not meant to be a scientific study of how many more homeruns the M’s will hit, but rather a way to grasp the proportion of balls in play that actually make it to the wall. These spray charts include balls hit in other ballparks, which isn’t ideal, but perhaps gives us a bigger sample of each player’s power spray. Enjoy!

 

 

You’ll notice that our Mariners flirted with the wall a few times, including Michael Saunders, Franklin Gutierrez, Jesus Montero, Casper Wells and Brendan Ryan. The fences will definitely make a difference, but it’s not necessarily going to be noticeable every game. Don’t tell any free agents that second part, though!

Tags: Brendan Ryan Casper Wells Fences Franklin Gutierrez Jesus Montero Marine Air Park Factor Safeco Field Seattle Mariners

  • maqman

    I agree it will make a difference but not a big one in my mind. Helps some hitters hurts some pitchers. The sea level air pressure, high humidity and in-stadium air flow are what suppresses right-handed hitters in The Safe. The fence distance not so much. If Upton come here from Arizona he’s going to do badly.

    • Matthias_Kullowatz

      Yeah it seems like a few balls, if that, out of every hundred will actually have a different outcome, which is why it won’t even affect every game. But if free agents catch wind of this, then it could help for “recruiting.”

      • maqman

        I think its most positive effect will be on the M’s batters minds, they will think it will be easier to poke one out and it will be. They will go to bat with a less negative outlook.

        • Matthias_Kullowatz

          I was really just hoping you’d find my “catch wind of this” pun funny. Alas, I am not funny.

          • maqman

            Being an old fart and living in England I tend to overlook “wind” references, as I hope others do when as the Brits say I “break it.”

  • JJ Allen Keller

    It is the marine air, but thats something we cant change. The fences were farther than they should have been as well tho. Plus, with Felix and the big three, it shouldnt matter. It wont be a hitters park. If they cant pitch well in a park that isnt much too pitcher friendly, they shouldnt be here