King For A Day: My Turn

Back before I became the editor for Seahawks blog on this network, I was the resident armchair GM here on SoDo Mojo. It only seem right that I check in with my version of an offseason plan for Mariners. Harrison already gave his ideas, and I can assure that his are more well researched than minewill be.

Basic Theory: Stop Rebuilding and Start Building

The Mariners have unloaded all of the old awful Bavasi contracts but one, and Ichiro’s contract is up after this year. There’s no reason to continue trading away players for prospects. Plus, the 3 years under Jack Zduriencik has been the M’s farm system go from being on of the worst in baseball to being in the top 10. The minor leagues are now of talent and depth. It’s time to begin using those assets to help the major league team.

I’m not talking about a Bavasi-esque gutting of the top minor league talent, so don’t get that idea. I’m suggesting that the M’s identify the top players in their system, the ones that will eventually help the M’s win. Keep those players and trade some of the other. While those players might fetch smaller rewards, thats fine with me. There’s no reason to keep players that are blocked from getting time with the Mariners by better players. 

Roster Maintenance

Harrison’s take on this is really good, but he missed one very obvious name that needs to be removed from the M’s 40 man roster. There isn’t a player who’s less worthy of a roster spot than Michael Saunders. There is simply no legitimate reason for him to remain with the team. He has no trade value whatsoever, and has no ability to help ever help the major league team. It’s time to cut him loose.

Waive: Ceasar Jimenez, Jeff Gray, David Aardsma, Chris Gimenez, Mike Wilson

Free-Agents: Jamey Wright, Josh Bard, Adam Kennedy, Wily Mo Pena

Non-Tender: Luis Rodriguez, Michael Saunders

Down to: 32 Roster Spots

Add: Carlos Triunfel, Fransico Martinez, Chih-Hsien Chaing

40 man roster sits at 35.

I’ll also use Harrison’s salary numbers. They seem about right.

$ Spent: $69 mil (per MLBtraderumors.com)

$ Cap: $91 mil

$ Left: $ 22 mil

Identifying Needs:

People will dispute a number of these points. The truth is that the M’s have more needs than they can fill in one offseason. I think most of you who’ll take the time to read this will believe that a RF upgrade is after Ichiro’s 2011 season. Unfortunately, I believe that it will have to wait until next season. There’s just too many other things that need done, and Ichiro’s contract essentially ties the hands of Mariner management.

3B: Figgins clearly doesn’t belong there. Kyle Seager is a second baseman, not a third baseman. He doesn’t hit well enough for third. Alex Liddi isn’t a major leaguer at this point and likely never will be. His strike out rate is ungodly high. The M’s wont get better by inserting more strikeouts into their lineup.

LF: While there are plenty of young guys who would like to audition for the LF spot, none of them offers and upgrade that will generate wins. Unless the M’s want to lose 90 games again, they need to find an upgrade in LF.

C: Miguel Olivo offered little behind the plate last season. Adam Moore was supposed to use 2011 to develop into the player than could be counted on for 2012, but he lasted just 2 games before being lost for the season with a knee injury. There are not serious questions about whether or not his knee will let me stick behind the plate going forward.

Rotation: The M’s need a 5th starter. Preferably someone who can be moved at the deadline. Danny Hultzen and James Paxton will both likely to be called up at some point of 2012. There’s no reason to make it overly difficult to make that happen. While Charlie Furbush could hold down a roster spot while we wait for one of them to be ready, I think it’s wiser to make sure that the M’s have someone who can stay in the rotation all season in case one or both of the kids struggles a bit and needs additional time in Tacoma.

Trades

Mariners trade Chone Figgins and Yoervis Medina to the Cubs for Carlos Zambrano. The money in this deal is roughly even, but the years aren’t. I propose that the team’s pay out the contract for the players they signed. Meaning the M’s are on the hook for 9 mil this season and 8 next season, while the Cubs pay 18 this season and then are done.

This deal is a garbage for garbage deal, and is also win-win for both teams. The M’s get a pitcher with top of the rotation ability in Zambrano. He’ll likely be tradable mid-season if he has a solid first half, provided that the M’s pick up some of his salary. If not, then he’s mostly at least likely going to be a type-B free agent and thus will net the M’s a draft pick. He fills the need for another starter, and will be gone by 2013 to open up a rotation spot for one of the Paxton-Hultzen duo.

The deal works for the Cubs because they will be desperate to get something for Zambrano, instead of just cutting him. He’s clearly done in Chicago after walking out on his team. Figgins offers a 3rd base option now that that Amaris Ramirez is a free agent. Figgins could also be utility player if they find another 3rd base option. Plus, with the M’s covering the tab on Figgins for the 2013 season, the Cub could cut him loose if he fails and owe him nothing. While most M’s fans think that Figgins is worthless, there’s a belief throughout baseball that he’s due to rebound, especially if he can get away from Seattle.

Including Medina in the deal sweetens the deal the Cubs. Medina is a guys who, once moved to the bullpen, will be fast tracked to the majors. The Cubs have one of, if not the worst farm systems in the league right now. A solid bullpen prospect would be a solid ”get” and helps offset the risk of Figgins being a complete failure.

Money left: 22 mil

Mariners trade Brandon League, Trayvon Robinson, and Kyle Seager to the Nationals for 3B Ryan Zimmerman

Zimmerman’s time with Washington is coming to a rapid end now that the Nationals have Anthony Rendon is waiting in the wings. The Nationals could also use the salary relief granted by trading Zimmerman. Seager, Robinson and League all fill needs that the National’s have.

Mariner fans will see this as giving up too much, but Seager is blocked and thus is no more than a utility player on the Mariners. Robinson is at best a 4th outfielder, and the M’s have other, better options for that roll, and League going to be an expensive reliever that is a luxury the M’s don’t need.

Money left: $14 million

Free Agents

David Aardsma, RP – 1 yr, one mil + incentives.

In my opinion, Aardsma will require more to re-sign than Harrison indicated. Aardsma is a decent reliever, and will want to chance to re-establish himself as a major leaguer on a one year deal, hoping to cash in a year from now. He’s a good fit in Seattle, who needs another late inning option.

Money left: $14 million

Ramon Hernandez, C – 2 yrs, 4 million per year

As a 2 WAR catcher, Hernandez is the best available catcher. He’s a decent upgrade over Olivo and is a reasonable stop-gap while the M’s wait for some of that low-A catching talent to mature. In then scenario, Miguel Olivo stays with the M’s. Adam Moore needs to start 2012 in AAA after missing all of 2011, and might never be ready for the bigs after a major knee injury. If he is, then the M’s can trade Olivo mid-season and bring Moore up then.

Money left: $10 million

Grady Sizemore, OF – 2 yr, 7 mil per season.

Signing Sizemore is a big risk. His price tag is high for a guy who hasn’t been able to stay healthy, but he offers instant credibility to the M’s offense when he’s in the lineup. Sizemore is a former CF, who will be able to handle the spacious LF at Safeco.

Money left: $3 million

Additional Moves:

The $3 million left would be used for minor league deals, or reserved for mid-season call ups.

Minor league FA deals: there will be a few, but only a couple that matter in to the big league team: Nick Punto, Greg Dobbs.

The Final Roster

Lineup:

Bench:

Rotation: Felix Hernandez, Carlos Zambrano, Michael Pineda, Jason Vargas, Blake Beavan

Bullpen: David Aardsma, Chance Ruffin, Dan Cortez, Tom Wilhelmson, Josh Lueke, Shawn Kelly, Charlie Furbush

Final Thoughts

This isn’t a sexy off-season plan. There’s no Prince Fielder listed. No Yu Darvish being brought in from Japan. No blockbust trade for Matt Holliday. Instead it is a bunch of smaller moves that I believe create a balanced lineup and a solid young pitching staff.

It also does so without mortgaging the future hugh contracts, or selling the farm. I’ve only traded away 3 prospects, and no free agent is signed for over 2 years. I’ve also taken care not to block a major prospect like Nick Franklin, James Paxton or Danny Hultzen.

The bench is a bit of a concern. On top of being the starting DH, Carp is also the backup 1B and 5th outfielder. Punto is solid defensively, but offers no bat and thus isn’t worthwhile as a pinch hitter. Dobbs can hit a little, but is a throw in as the 25th man on the roster. The bullpen is also really young. Furbush would be the long guy in the pen, and the rest are mostly 1 inning guys. I’d expect Wilhelmsen and Ruffin to be stretched out so they could routinely throw 2 innings when needed.

I also like that there’s organizational depth in this plan. If Sizemore goes on the DL for an extended period, Halaman or Peguero are still around to fill in (though Wells would get the majority of the planning time I hope.) Liddi could come up if there’s an injury at 1st, 3rd, or DH. Punto is already on there to cover an injury in the middle infield, and Adam
Moore would be in Tacoma for if there’s a catcher injury.

So what do you guys think? Too much? too little? Or am I completely delusional?
Keith is also the editor of 12th Man Rising. Fansided’s blog dedicated to the Seattle Seahawks.
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