Trade Analysis: Fister to the Tigers

What the Mariners gave up: Doug Fister and David Pauley

Losing Fister does make me sad. He’s a guy who consistently gets more out of his “stuff” than you’d expect. He’s also been doing it for long enough now that I don’t think you can claim he is on a hot streak and will regress into being a below average player. What he is, though, is a back to middle of the rotation starter. As much as I like Fister, he’s not irreplaceable. There is actually very little drop off from Fister’s numbers to that of rookie Blake Beavan.

Trading David Pauley is the epitome of selling at maximum value. I know Harrison loves Pauley, but he’s hardly worth holding on to. Prior to his 2010 callup, Pauley was nothing more than a minor league journeyman, and was only a replacement level player in 2010. Without changing his mechanics, improving any of his pitches or adding velocity, he suddenly became a very good reliever? His regression back down to Earth is inevitable, and has actually already begun. I actually expect the Tigers to be pretty disappointed in Pauley, who they acquired to upgrade their bullpen. I don’t want this to sound like I’m hating on Pauley. I just think he is what he is

What the Mariners got from the Tigers: Charlie Furbush, Casper Wells, Francisco Martinez, and a “significant” player to be named later.

Furbush is a 25 year old lefty pitcher. He’s been in the Tiger’s bullpen for parts of this season since they were desperate for bullpen help, but he was a starter in the minors. He’ll start in the ‘pen for Seattle, but will likely be stretched out to start at some point, either soon or next spring. Most fans wont think much of Furbush at first, but he’s better than you think he is. While he’s not as good as Fister right now, his ceiling is higher.

Wells is a 26 year old right handed outfielder. He plays very good defense and has a bit of pop at the plate. He isn’t a great hitter, but he isn’t bad. His .342 wOBA is now the 3rd best on the team behind only Dustin Ackley and Mike Carp. His UZR/150 is a scary high 22.1, but that is small sample size driven. I also was told his arm is one of the “top outfield arms in all of baseball,” for whatever that is worth.

Martinez is a 20 year third basemen who’s already in AA, making him one of the youngest players in that league. His offensive numbers don’t jump off the page, but he’s clearly been rushed. Expect him to get plenty of development time before he sees the bigs. My first impression of him was that his walk rate was too low, but I’ve been told from people who are better informed than I am that his approach at the plate is actually decent. Martinez is now officially the third baseman of the future within the organization.

As for the player to be named later, all we know is that it supposed to be a “significant prospect.” I also say this from Shannon Drayer:

I’ll post more later on the possible players that it might be.

Final Analysis

Of course it all depends on the PTBNL, but this is looking like a “win” for the Mariners at this point. The Mariners only gave up one significant player and got 2 major league players and 2 significant prospects. So while losing Fister might hurt in the short term, I think Mariners just got better over the long term.