Fire Sale! Everything Must Go!

Not really, but I loved the headline so I just had to use it. Before I do my take on Harrison’s King for a Day post, I figured I’d first go through each Seattle Mariners veteran and see what kind of value they have, and whether or not they’re likely to be traded.

Pitchers:

Felix Hernandez

Value: Immense! Greater than perhaps any other player in baseball.

Likelihood of being traded: Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha… no. Not going to happen. How about about -100%?

Comments: Despite the east coast based news networks desire for the game’s best pitcher to be over on the east coast, Felix simply isn’t going to be traded. It’s much more likely that they begin funding effort to clone Felix than trade him.

Erik Bedard

Value:  Depends on his starts after coming off the DL

Likelihood of being traded: Very High

Comments: If Bedard comes off the DL and pitches like he did before going on the DL, then Bedard is perhaps the best pitcher on the market not named Mark Burhle, (though Bedard is a lot cheaper) and would command a large price. If he doesn’t pitch well, then the M’s will be lucky to get a significant prospect in return.

much more after the jump.

Jason Vargas and Doug Fister

Value: Less than their stat lines would suggest.

Likelihood of being traded: very very slim.

Comments: I put these 2 together because they’re identical when it comes to trade value. Both are better performers than their perceived value around the league. They’re also better performers than their salary would indicate. Neither are being moved.

Jamey Wright and Chris Ray

Value: not much

Likelihood of being traded: High

Comments: At least one of these 2 are likely to be dealt, though it might not come until after the trade deadline. The M’s will want to make room for Lueke to get another shot at the majors this year.

David Pauley

Value: not much

Likelihood of being traded: little

Comments: Pauley is cheap, could move into the middle relief or long role next year and wont cost the team much for a while now. Combined with his low value, and he simply isn’t going anywhere.

Aaron Laffey

Value: little, though more than you might think

Likelihood of being traded: moderate

Comments: Laffey is not your typical bullpen left, and more of a long to middle relief pitcher than a traditional lefty specialist, but he’s been effective this season and teams with bullpen needs might take a chance on him because he’ll come cheaply. The M’s can trade him for a prospect and will have essentially “flipped” him for a better prospect than they gave up to get him.

Brandon League

Value: High, higher than you think.

Likelihood of being traded: low, lower than you think

Comments: League is an all-star closer, fairly cheap when it comes to salary, and under team control for next year. The M’s could get a tremendous prospect for him if they traded him now. They wont though. A year from now they will, but not now.

Position players:

Adam Kennedy

Value: moderate more than you probably think

Likelihood of being traded: high

Comments: Kennedy is cheap, plays multiple position, is left handed, swing a good bat, and doesn’t mind not playing every day (in fact, he’s better when he doesn’t) He’s the perfect bench player for a playoff team. There will be teams calling for his services.

Jack Wilson

Value: low to moderate (depending on how much of his salary the M’s eat

Likelihood of being traded:  high

Comments: He’s lost almost all of his playing time, so he’s likely to be shipped off. Just because the M’s don’t value him, doesn’t mean no one will. His bat may be gone, but he is still one of the best gloves in the game, and he’s learned to play 2B this season, so he’ll have even more value as a bench player.

Brendan Ryan

Value: High

Likelihood of being traded: none

Comments: He’s not going anywhere. Who would replace him? And why trade away such a good player who’s making almost nothing both this year and next season. He stays. Count on it.

Chone Figgins

Value: none (can it be negative?)

Likelihood of being traded: not zero! (what?!?! Yes, you read that right!)

Comments: Expect the M’s to try really hard to dump his salary, or at least as much of it as they can. I have an idea on where he might go, but that’s the topic of another post.

Ichiro

Value: very little

Likelihood of being traded: none

Comments: too much salary, too little production so far. Ichiro isn’t going anywhere.

Franklin Gutierrez

Value: moderate

Likelihood of being traded: none

Comments: trading Guti would be the epitome selling low. His defense is still stellar, and his bat will return as his strength comes back. He’s not going anywhere.

Jack Cust

Value: low

Likelihood of being traded: high

Comments: Cust is on the bench for the foreseeable future, and doesn’t have a roll with this team in the future. Someone will want a lefty pinch hitter for the stretch run and playoffs and will call about him. Expect him to be traded after the trade deadline during the “waiver period.”