Erik Bedard And Trade Value


More points have been brought up belittling the return that we would get from another team. Arguments by fans are being made that we should keep Erik Bedard and that we don’t need more “B” prospects.

That’s a stupid argument as any team needs more B level prospects. But it’s true the reality is we aren’t most likely going to get that huge “Justin Smoak” sized talent. We are, however, going to get some talent back. Bedard is one of the best arms available on the market and as such we’ll start seeing the clamor for trades by teams such as the Red Sox, Yankees, Cardinals and Rockies (who recently just lost Jorge de la Rosa) just for starters.

Regardless of how many innings he’s going to be able to give another team (well … so long as it’s more than a total of 10) it’s not about how many playoff starts he’s going to make, his job is simply to contribute to getting the team to the playoffs. No team will have the expectations for him to be the “ace” of the staff unlike Cliff Lee. That’s why we won’t get a huge return for him.

But, he’s an above average pitcher and there will be a return that is equal to what we are giving up and farm system depth is much more important than 31 year old who’s had 4 arm surgeries and most likely won’t give you more than 150 innings a season.

He’s a solid and maybe even a great short term solution and I love having him around, but you need to trade him while there is demand and before his arm falls off. If he wants to come back in the off season on a reasonable contract that’s fine by me, I’d love him back but we as fans are always told this is a business. If that’s the case and we need to take care of the future of the organization and continue looking to 2013 as the year we win the division not 2011

Tags: Erik Bedard

  • Coug1990

    Since you are throwing out ideas. I am curious to what you think about Vargas. What would you think of Boston or the Yankees made the Mariners an overwhelming offer for him like say a package that includes C/DH Montero or someone like that. I am curious what you think. Thanks

    • Harrison Crow

      I’d keep Vargas short of an overwhelming deal. He’s arbitration eligible for the first time this year. He’s affordable and under contract for the next three years.

      If you consider him a baseline 2.5 war guy then that’s roughly 30$m in production.

      I’m also holding on to him because I think he’s still getting better. While the cut fastball has produced a lot of great results, what is often missed is how good his curve ball has been this year compared to years past.

      I’d have to have Montero + a two other pieces. I’d want a Andrew Brackman and a Jose Ramirez. Now I doubt they give that up for him.

      From Boston it would be something like a Josh Reddick, Tim Federowicz and Drake Britton.

      That’s what I’d need to give up right now Jason Vargas.

      • Coug1990

        If the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays continue to battle it out, I could see possibly the Yankees making a determined effort to acquire a good starting pitcher.

        They were willing to give up a lot for a pitcher they had control over for a few month. They may be willing to give up something worthwhile for a player they have control over for three more years.

        I would have to be blown away because you don’t need to move him, but if Hank Steinbrenner got involved, who knows what they might offer.

        • Harrison Crow

          Hank is a little more level headed than his father way. While he too got involved this off-season I don’t see him going after Vargas.

          There are a few other players I think they would go after first. Jason Vargas isn’t going anywhere.

  • http://www.sodojoe.blogspot.com Joe

    Like I said before, let’s finish evaluating before we get into this trade talk. There is way to much we could lose. Bedard is a good chip and we can get high draft comp for him if he continues to pitch like he has, but if he wants to stay here after all he’s been through, I can see us re-signing him before the years end. WE’ll see, but i sure do like our rotation as it is!!! I don’t think anyone would disagree there.

    SodoJoe

    • Harrison Crow

      The problem with that theory is that it assumes way too much upon Bedard’s value.

      We WILL NOT get a draft comp for him. Not even if he pitches like this for another 30 games. He has lost too much statistically to qualify as a type B free agent.

      I like our rotation too but not enough to sit and do nothing with a pitcher that has a history of being injury prone. They need to move him.

      The Mariners aren’t going to win the division and need to take care of the organization long term.

  • http://Retired maqman

    I don’t think he gets traded. I believe both Z and he have faith in each other and both want him here. With his incentives he could end up making over $7MM this season so either the M’s or the trade partner is going to absorb serious money, which reduces the trade return value. The team has an $8MM option for 2012 but he can opt out of that if he wishes. The tough call will be his future value if he finishes the season well. What’s he gonna be worth? 3/$30?