I’m sorry that it’s taken so long to get something up but this has taken just about all week and with all the different publications coming up with updated draft information I wanted to compare my notes with what they put out there.
We’re just 2 weeks out … and of course things change… guys “stock” goes up and to be fair teams intentions become a little clearer. So I’m sure this will be out of date come June 1st but .. you never know. This is just where I think all teams are at right now.
Mock draft after the jump…
1. Pirates – Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA
Time is getting short and I really don’t know what’s going to happen with the #1 pick. I think that the Pirates need to “nail” this a lot more than what the Mariners need too and the Mariners really need this pick so that’s saying something.
Cole is in my mind still the best pitcher. You can argue results but if you’ve seen the depth of his pitches, solid mechanics and the sustained velocity late into games he’s an unbelievable talent and you can’t go wrong getting him.
He’s not an injury risk and that’s why I go with him here.
2. Mariners – Anthony Rendon, 3B – Rice
Rendon is such a boon to the Mariners franchise. No knock to any of the players already in the farm system but we don’t have a “game changing” bat within the organization and that’s what Rendon does for us.
Yes, there are some serious concerns with a possible injury and speculatively a torn rotator cuff. Those rumors emerged yesterday afternoon and have been running rampant over several draft sites. It’s something to watch but even if it was true I don’t know how much it really changes this pick.
3. Arizona – Daniel Hultzen, LHP – Virginia
Arizona has drafted Hultzen before and they really like him I don’t see him getting beyond them. I think this is a slam dunk if there is any in the draft.
4. Baltimore – Dylan Bundy, RHP – High School
Bundy’s brother is already in the farm system, the scouting director is from Oklahoma… just too many connections to ignore here.There is rumor that Baltimore also has interest in Jed Bradley and a few other pitchers but if Bundy is on the board I just can’t see them passing on him. It would be a mistake.
5. Kansas City – Bubba Starling, OF – High School
Supposedly the rumor from Keith Law is that the Royals are hot and heavy on Bundy and Lindor but I don’t buy all of the hype. I really believe he goes to the local team. The Royals have former members of the organization coaching him on his travel ball and they’ve been scouting him for well over 4 years. I just don’t see him getting past KC at this point.
Maybe it’s all true and I’m in denial but I’ll be really disappointed should some one other than Kansas city come down with him.
6. Washington – Matt Barnes, RHP – Connecticut
I was seeing Fransico Lindor’s name attached here up until about a few days ago and then his stock started dropping like crazy. Weird. It seems that Mike Rizzo is going after a college pitcher but will refuse to go under sized. That rules out Bauer, Gray and they don’t seem interested in Jungmann… again that’s the word. Keith Law says they also like Alex Meyer here. That seems like an over draft but that’s just me. Everyone all of a sudden in love with Meyer, Matt Harvey style.
7. Arizona* – Trevor Bauer, RHP – UCLA
Arizona has scouted Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer pretty extensively the last couple of weeks and the rumor is that they will jump on Bauer should he last this long. But they are also connected with a few other college arms. I hear they also like Barnes and Gray. This is an unprotected pick but despite that, the word around all the sites (PG, BA and ESPN) is that they will go best player available here.
8. Cleveland – Sonny Gray, RHP – Vanderbilt
Cleveland’s been interested in Gray but I’ve also seen Jed Bradley’s name here multiple times as well as a couple of Taylor Jungmann connections. They will stay predominately with their track record and go college arm here. Which one I’m just not sure.
9. Cubs – George Springer, OF Connecticuit
The Cubs and Tim Wilken are a straight up wild card and I can fit about half a dozen random different names here. They never fear going It’s hard to tell what’s going to happen with Jim Hendry and crew’s. But I like George Springer as the best player available (BPA) here and think he will end up in the Cub white and blue pinstripe uni’s.
10. Padres* – Tyler Anderson, LHP – Oregon
Now this is a unprotected pick but I think the Padres take a chance here as their next pick isn’t until 25. I could also see them taking Lindor, Jose Fernandez, Mikie Mahtook and Kolten Wong here.
11. Astros – Jose Fernandez, RHP – High School
I really like Taylor Guerrieri here but he has dropped on a few boards due to “make-up” issues. I’m not a real big fan of things like this especially for high schoolers. You never what’s really going on and while it’s easy to pin someone with a tag like that it’s not always the case.
Fernandez is more of a guy that fits the budget and still fits the overall mold for what the Astros are looking for. The one upside that Astro fans have is that the team maybe sold by the rule-4 draft and they may not have to settle for a signability pick.
12. Brewers – Francisco Lindor, SS – High School
The Brewers love going BPA and at 12 overall there are going to be some great position players available that fit their organizational structure. Linor is a steal at 12 and there are rumors that he could go much higher and then there is another set of rumors that say he could drop much lower. Who knows the draft is still a ways away.
I REALLY think they lean towards George Spring if he’s available here.
13. Mets – Alex Meyer, RHP – Kentucky
The Mets maybe an interesting case. I think they will jump on a college arm and they maybe forced to go with a someone they are sure will sign for slot. I’ve seen them connected here with John Stilson and I think that’s also a good fit. But I think Alex Meyer is kind of similar to the Matt Harvey pick last year. There are better arms on the board here too so you never know.
14. Marlins – Archie Bradley, RHP – High School
This just seems to fit here. Athletic, toolsy but still a great player. The Marlins love their amateur talent and Bradley is one of the better ones in the draft. It’s worth the argument that he’s near par or close to last years #2 overall talent Jameson Tallion.
I think there are a number of prep bats that also have the Marlins interested. I’ve heard they’ve been interested in Taylor Guerreri, Josh Bell, Travis Harrison, Fransico Lindor and you never know Austin Hedges may even fit here if they are willing to believe in him enough to pay out the nose.
15. Brewers* – Mikie Mahtook, OF – LSU
This could go a multitude of ways and I’m not going to lie. The Brewers are very interested in several different prep bats as well as college bats and a few prep arms. But I think with this being a unprotected pick they are going to go with someone they feel they can sign. I like Kolten Wong and Jackie Bradley Jr here too.
16. Dodgers – Henry Owens, LHP – High School
Owens fits the prep profile with solid projection and should be sign for slot. Perfect Game compares him to former Angel and current Dback prospect Tyler Skaggs. He projects to be an end of the first round early supplemental pick but due to money restraints they are going to be forced to over draft talent in order to keep it.
17. Angles – Taylor Guerreri, RHP – High School
The last non-high school talent that the Angels drafted in the first round was Jared Weaver back in 2004. Now, they also have a new scouting director Ric Wilson. There are still some amazing college players and they could go with them (i.e Jed Bradley, Taylor Jungman, ect) but with Taylor Guerreri on the board as well as other top prep pitchers Daniel Norris, Robert Stephenson and high school outfielder talent Josh Bell. I’m going to take the bet they stay high school with this pick.
18. Athletics – Kolten Wong, 2B – Hawaii
Wong is the best college position player on the board at this point and that’s where I see them going. While I wouldn’t be surprised with a college pitcher move here either. But I think the Athletics grab the best position player on the board. That’s their “M.O.” in general. A few other names that work here are local northwest guy Andrew Susac, CJ Cron, Jackie Bradley jr and Cory Spangenberg.
19. Red Sox – Andrew Susac, C – Oregon State
The Red Sox are going to go catcher with one of their first picks. I’m not a betting man but if I were I’d take a huge bet on it. I’ve heard they’ve had a good deal of scouts out at Oregon state and he seems like the best bet to be here.
All of the top three catchers have been dropping on boards due to all sorts of things. Susac due to injury, though most people still think extremely high of him, Austin Hedges seems almost certain to head to UCLA and has a ridiculous asking price despite the fact he’s not a great bet to hit for much behind the plate. Then there is Blake Swihart who is the top ranked catcher in this draft and he hasn’t been playing much behind the plate this year, which could worry scouting directors across the league. The latest word is that the two prep catchers most likely fall out of the first round but a good bets to get drafted in the supplemental round.
This could be really good news for the Mariners being that they are looking for a catcher at either 63 (second round) or 93 (third round) overall picks. But, we’ll get into those picks here in the next week.
20. Rockies – Daniel Norris, LHP – High School
The Rockies love young left handed pitching and Daniel Norris is the left handed high school pitcher in the draft and is a steal at 20. I think Dillon Howard is a fit here too but I strongly believe they’ll stay with a prep arm.
21. Blue Jays – Jed Bradley, LHP – Georgia
Blue Jays aren’t specific with the talent. They go with who THEY feel are the best available talents and that could change. I believe that at this point there are going to be a couple of good college pitchers that drop and they’ll be able to jump all over. In this case Jed Bradley.
But, I also believe that they could just on a high school pitcher/position player that drops too. Here they are going to go for value and the best player that drops from the first 20 picks. That could be a couple different players.
22. Cardinals -Taylor Jungmann, RHP – Texas
Cardinal I think are very similar to the Jays. They have done a wonderful job of drafting the past few years, grabbing big talent players that were still on the board for variety of reasons and getting talent into the system. They even tried to grab Austin Wilson in the 13th round last year. Almost turned into one of the best moves of the entire draft.
They’re going to go with the best playing available at this point and for this mock draft it’s Taylor Jungmann. They could also land a number of other players that could drop including Taylor Guerreri, Alex Meyer, Andrew Susac or Daniel Norris. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see them grab some under valued high school talents like Michael Kelley, Tyler Beede, Dillon Howard, Derek Fisher, Josh Bell or Larry Greene.
Baseball America points out that they could go for a shortstop as there is still some depth at that position at this point so you could connect them with any number of guys to include Levi Michael, Trevor Story, Cory Spangenberg (if they believe he could stick at short), Phillip Evans, Julius Gaines (one of my favorite) and Joe Panik (another one of my favorites). Who all most likely won’t be around the next time they draft at 79.
23. Nationals – Brian Goodwin, OF – Junior College
I’ve seen a few different guys talk about how much Mike Rizzo likes Brian Goodwin. I know Keith Law excepts him to be grabbed here and should Alex Meyer somehow drop (assuming he’s not grabbed at 6th overall) he won’t make it past here.
They’ve also been connected with are CJ Cron and a few different left handed college pitchers.
24. Rays – Javier Baez, SS – High School
Baez most likely won’t stick at short in my opinion but he’s most likely to hit better than Lindor. Add that to the fact he has a verbal commitment to a small junior college and this works out in the Rays favor as a very signable talent that could go a variety of ways.
25. Padres -Cory Spangenberg, 2B – Junior College
I really want to connect them with Blake Swihart. I really think that’s where they go but a variety of places have noted their connection with Spangenberg and according to Baseball America they won’t pass on him twice. Take that for what it’s worth.
Ultimately, history tells us to expect them to take a high ceiling high school talent. It should be interesting to see how the draft board looks at this point.
26. Red Sox -Dillon Howard, RHP – High School
I think at this point the Red Sox may take a signable talent with good upside. Howard’s a good bet to sign and while it’s not a huge concern I don’t think he’ll take much more than above slot.
27. Reds – John Stilson
The Reds love their college arms and Stilson, much like Leake, won’t take long to go through the system. It’s possibly they use this pick to go with a middle infield position or a projectable high school talent but they don’t spend big and often they value floors over ceilings so Stilson’s a good bet at this point.
I’d also say Josh Osich, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Chafin are all options too.
28. Braves – Julius Gaines
Everyone has them connected with Josh Bell, who is compared a lot to current out field prodigy Jason Heyward. But they scout their local area extensively and I believe that Gaines could be a really attractive piece to their farm system. They could also go with Larry Greene or son of former Brave out field Dwight Smith Jr.
29. Giants -Robert Stephenson
Stephenson, A local California talent and recruit for University of Washington, started the season off in grand fashion throwing back-to-back no-hitters. He throws doesn’t throw big heat but he has good movement on his fastball which could come out as a plus pitch as well as a curve ball that doubles a potential above average secondary pitch with a change-up that is in works.
There are some concerns about his mechanics but the Giants have done a great job with their prep pitchers in the past that I think this is a solid marriage between talent and organization.
30. Twins – Joshua Osich
It’s not that I think the twins are stingy with spending so much as I just don’t think they are the best at evaluating amateur talent. 2 of their last 4 first round picks have been rather underwhelming and I’m really not sure where they go with this pick. I believed based upon the last few years that they will go either with an athletic High School outfielder or a college pitcher.
That puts guys such as Kyle Winkler, Charles Tilson, Derek Fisher, Brandon Nimmo, Andrew Chafin, or Johnny Eierman right in their sights.
31. Rays – Brandon Nimmo
The Rays love, love, love Northwest talent. I’ve heard them connected with Nimmo since last year and I think that IF he’s still available at the end of the first round they are going to pull the trigger with on the these picks.
I’ve also heard that they have no problem using a pick to grab a high priced talent that drops. This would include someone like Austin Hedges, Blake Swihart, Matthew Purke,
32. Rays – Anthony Meo
I do anticipate them to grab a signable talent and Anthony Meo is that. He’s a bit of an overdraft at this point becausee of the amount of talent that is on the board at this point. But he’s a sure talent that still has a decent ceiling of a #3 talent.
You could also put someone like Kyle Winkler, Andrew Chafin, Logan Verrett and Grayson Garvin in this spot too.
33. Rangers – Josh Bell
The Rangers love raw high ceiling talent with power. I could see them going with Josh Bell but I could also see a Derek Fisher, Larry Greene, Tyler Goeddel or Travis Harrison. I wouldn’t put it past them to try and scoop up one of the many prep pitchers that are still on the board at this point such as Tyler Beede, Michael Kelly, Kevin Comer, Hudson Boyd (a personal favorite of mine) and Kevin Moriarty.
Tags: Alex Meyer Andrew Susac Anthony Rendon Archie Bradley Blake Swihart Brandon Nimmo Brian Goodwin Bubba Starling CJ Cron Daniel Hultzen Daniel Norris Dillon Howard Dylan Bundy Fransico Lindor George Springer Gerrit Cole Jackie Bradley Jr Javier Baez Jed Bradley John Stilson Jose Fernandez Josh Bell Josh Osich Kolten Wong Matt Barnes Matt Purke Mikie Mahtook Robert Stephenson Sonny Gray Taylor Guerrieri Taylor Junggman Trevor Bauer Tyler Anderson