Paxton Signing Imminent


I’m kind of late to the party and all but there is a reason for it, you know besides having a life. Paxton has frustrated me beyond all else. Reading Prospect Insider you’ll see some great insight by both Chris and Jason, and then of course all the usual suspects have a say. Conor comments over at ProballNW, Jay Yencich comments for USS:Mariner, and then of course Jeff Sullivan has it for Lookout Landing.

Jason Churchill left this tidbit in the comment section over at the PI.

No, it’s a pretty great thing. The M’s got him cheap (not allowed to share the number told to me just yet, but it’s good for the team) and he’s been throwing a lot on the side.

The layoff is more than the Crows and Hochevars, so there is a concern there, but it’s not whether or not he can come back and be good. It’s how long it will take.

Tanner Scheppers hasn’t been impacted much, if at all.

Paxton may look bad for a year or so, and then it clicks again.

Now if you really care to hear my take on it you can follow the jump below or just be satisfied that I haven’t completely let you down in this post. Assuming I didn’t screw anything up above.

James Paxton is a great get. Without a doubt he’s a phenomenal left-hander and it’s exciting to start imagining a starting rotation of Felix, Michael Pineda, Erik Bedard, James Paxton and possibly Gerrit Cole. But, there is still a tremendous amount of rust to shake off and while you can’t necessarily compare him to one person, I just have a feeling that it’s a little too much Josh Fields and a little too late.

I was in love with the pick back in June and I’m still excited about having him in the organization.

Just to keep things real here is the minor league stats for Luke Hochevar. Originally drafted by the Dodgers and then drafted by the Royals.

Year Age Tm Lev W L ERA G IP BF WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2006 22 Burlington A 0 1 1.17 4 15.1 57 0.652 4.7 1.2 1.2 9.4 8.00
2007 23 2 Teams AA-AAA 4 9 4.86 27 152.0 663 1.382 9.7 1.4 2.8 8.2 2.94
2008 24 Omaha AAA 1 1 2.60 3 17.1 68 0.981 5.7 1.0 3.1 6.2 2.00
2009 25 Omaha AAA 5 1 1.50 8 48.0 187 1.104 7.7 0.4 2.2 6.8 3.00
5 Seasons 11 13 3.60 48 260.1 1091 1.248 8.5 1.1 2.7 8.3 3.04
AAA (4 seasons) AAA 7 5 3.30 23 128.1 520 1.153 7.6 1.1 2.8 6.7 2.40
A (1 season) A 0 1 1.17 4 15.1 57 0.652 4.7 1.2 1.2 9.4 8.00
AA (1 season) AA 3 6 4.69 17 94.0 418 1.447 10.5 1.2 2.5 9.0 3.62
Ind (1 season) Ind 1 1 2.38 4 22.2 96 1.368 7.9 0.4 4.4 13.5 3.09

Now onto Aaron Crow, originally drafted by the Washington Nationals and then picked up the following year by the Royals (see a trend).

Year Age Tm Lg Lev W L ERA GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2010 23 Wilmington CARL A+ 2 3 5.93 7 44.0 10.4 1.2 1.2 10.8 8.83
2010 23 Northwest Arkansas TL AA 7 7 5.66 22 119.1 9.8 1.0 4.4 6.8 1.53
3 Seasons 12 10 5.26 32 181.1 9.6 0.9 3.5 7.9 2.29
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/28/2011.

And now I’m onto our very own Josh Fields.

Year Age Tm Lg Lev W L ERA GF IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2009 23 West Tenn SOUL AA 2 2 6.48 15 33.1 8.9 0.5 5.9 9.7 1.64
2010 24 West Tenn SOUL AA 1 1 3.14 14 28.2 6.0 0.0 5.7 8.8 1.56
2 Seasons 3 3 4.94 29 62.0 7.5 0.3 5.8 9.3 1.60
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/28/2011.

Does this mean that Paxton is going to fall apart and never be useful? Of course not. But it certainly means that 2011 will come with it’s own skepticism. Jay Yencich theorized that he could be placed in extended spring training and then follow it on to A-ball with the opportunity to move through the system “quickly”.  I think that’s a pretty fair assessment.

I hope to see him in AA by the end of the season but I feel even that maybe too high of expectations.

Here are a few scouting perspectives on Paxton Crawfish Boxes, Mack’s Mets, Baseball Rumor Mill.

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Tags: Aaron Crow James Paxton Josh Fields Luke Hochevar

  • http://Retired maqman

    He’s a legitimate prospect but that’s about it at this point (presuming his mother and father were married, not that I care). Maybe Z taught Boras a lesson, one can but hope so.

  • Coug1990

    I think of Paxton like I think of Bedard. I do not expect much, but if they contribute, it is gravy.