David Pauley vs. You

I have a quick question this morning. What’s with the David Pauley hate? We are getting all these Nate Robertson monologues about him rebuilding his career being pumped throughout the local media but there is no real talk of David Pauley. Who is on the other side of the coin they consider all Doug Fister to be a legitimate #3 starter. Take a quick look at the following

IP Swing% Ball% GB% HR/BIA% xFIP
David Pauley 90.2 7.2 38.2 48.6 9.03 4.49
Doug Fister 171 4.6 34.8 46.2 4.19 4.27

I get that Fister has pin-point control/accuracy. But I would say in return that Pauley gets more swings and misses (not to mention more ground balls).  It’s a trade off and I would argue that it’s a fair one at that.

I’m not trying to make either of these guys out to be more than back-of-the-rotation type pitchers. But, really the difference between these two guys (I’d argue) last year was Pauley allowed more home runs. In fact Pauley not only had a higher home run per ball hit in the air it double inside of Safeco (that’s 18%). #1 That’s not normal. #2 That’s double the league average of home runs given up and it’s inside a pitchers park.

I’m not saying that Pauley is the answer to the question “What if Erik Bedard doesn’t work out” but I am saying why not consider him. He’s a better option than Robertson.

Nate Roberston maybe a cool dude. I don’t know, I’ve never met him. I hope the best for him and that his career turns around while here in Seattle. But, I don’t get why people play him over Pauley just because he has pitched more than 200+ innings in his career.

Maybe it’s not hate… per-say but rather an under appreciation. Regardless, Pauley is the better pitcher between him and Roberston and really another (less-good?) version of Doug Fister.

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Tags: David Pauley Doug Fister Nate Robertson

  • http://www.sodomojo.com Brett Miller

    A 3.6% difference in balls thrown is pretty significant. It seems like a small number, but it’s not. Fister also has allowed 18.9% line drives in his career to Pauley’s 20.9%. Simply put, Fister induces weaker contact that Pauley does. Fister also induces about 2% more infield flies than Pauley.

    Furthermore, Pauley’s got a longer track record of being terrible, including minors. I’m not buying 90 IP in 2010 as significant enough to conclude he’s a different pitcher now. Fister was worth 2.9 WAR in 171 innings…Pauley was worth .1 WAR in 90.2 innings. Also, a difference of 0.22 in xFIP is significant…I wouldn’t be surprised if the M’s cut him, and I think it would honestly probably be the right call. He’s a journeyman, and nothing more.

    • Harrison Crow


    • Harrison Crow

      BALL%, yes is pretty signficant. But he has a longer\better track record for strike outs and a higher ground balls percentage.

      Over his minor league career he hasn’t had near the problem with HRs that he had last year and while yes Fister had higher WAR than Pauley it’s not to say that Pauley is useless.

      Yeah, your right he is a journeyman. No argument from me there. But he certainly has his uses, more so this year than next. Cutting him would be a waste IMO.

  • Keith Myers

    He’s a replacement level player. Their are tons of comparable players all around baseball that can be had for “cash considerations.” There’s no reason for Pauley to even be on the roster at this point.