Erik Bedard Healthy Once More

The Percentile And Erik Bedard


Erik Bedard, ahhh yes. Here we are there again. Debating over the usefulness of what could be one of the more talented pitchers in baseball. We tell ourselves “I’ll believe it, when I see it”. Then we are suddenly clutching to hope once more as reports surface that he has completed “multiple bullpen sessions”. Now, we’re right back to square one.

We get this feeling, similarly to when you see that crazy, hot ex-girlfriend that seemingly gets it all together. Only to find out after a couple of wasted months that she’s still hot and still extremely crazy.

It’s a similar situation to that of last year where we were trying to convince ourselves if only Bedard came back by May and was able to pitch the rest of the season… maybe, just maybe we could really give this a shot.

But the truth that relegates back to this year is regardless of how long Bedard pitches for the overall amount of production that he brings to this team is nearly as great as that of a Bonderman or Millwood. This is why it’s so easy to become intrigued with Bedard. This its why we get so excited at the possibility of him pitching behind Felix for a whole season.

Pitcher S/R IP ERA LEV FA $ WAR
Erik Bedard S 66 3.55 1.0 $7.8 1.6
Jeremy Bonderman S 179 4.58 1.0 $9.7 2.0
Kevin Millwood S 202 4.63 1.0 $10.4 2.2

Looking at the length of time he does pitch gives us an idea of how much success he will bring to the team based on the level of production. You can use Fangraph fans, Bill James, Marcel, ZiPS and there are others out there as a projection system available.  I choose to use Marcel (simply because it had him projected with the highest ERA) but to each his own.

What this projection sheet shows is how many wins based on length and production Bedard could possibly add to the Mariners over a league average player (aka Luke French or David Pauley).

Then I took it a step further, since there is both the chance that Bedard could over as well as under produce, based off the Marcel projection, I incorporated that into the spreadsheet too.

So, beyond the jump is Erik Bedard, projected innings pitched, projected era and his WAR categorized by percentile. Enjoy!

Erik Bedard at the 120% percentile. Increases the Mariners win total to 71 – 73.

Pitcher S/R IP ERA LEV FA $ WAR
Erik Bedard S 200 4.5 1 $0.40 2.5
Erik Bedard S 150 4.5 1 $0.40 1.9
Erik Bedard S 100 4.5 1 $0.40 1.3
Erik Bedard S 50 4.5 1 $0.40 0.6

 

Erik Bedard at the 110% percentile. Increases the Mariners win total to 71 – 73

Pitcher S/R IP ERA LEV FA $ WAR
Erik Bedard S 200 4.1 1 $0.40 3.4
Erik Bedard S 150 4.1 1 $0.40 2.6
Erik Bedard S 100 4.1 1 $0.40 1.7
Erik Bedard S 50 4.1 1 $0.40 0.9

 

 Erik Bedard at the 100% percentile. Increases the Mariners win total to 71 – 74

Pitcher S/R IP ERA LEV FA $ WAR
Erik Bedard S 200 3.7 1 $0.40 4.4
Erik Bedard S 150 3.7 1 $0.40 3.3
Erik Bedard S 100 3.7 1 $0.40 2.2
Erik Bedard S 50 3.7 1 $0.40 1.1

 

Erik Bedard at the 90% percentile. Increases the Mariners win total to 71 – 75

Pitcher S/R IP ERA LEV FA $ WAR
Erik Bedard S 200 3.3 1 $0.40 5.4
Erik Bedard S 150 3.3 1 $0.40 4.1
Erik Bedard S 100 3.3 1 $0.40 2.7
Erik Bedard S 50 3.3 1 $0.40 1.4

 

Erik Bedard at the 80% percentile. Increases the Mariners win total to 72 – 77

Pitcher S/R IP ERA LEV FA $ WAR
Erik Bedard S 200 3 1 $0.40 6.5
Erik Bedard S 150 3 1 $0.40 4.9
Erik Bedard S 100 3 1 $0.40 3.3
Erik Bedard S 50 3 1 $0.40 1.6

 

An Erik Bedard who pitches 50 innings at only 80% bedard capcity should still be worth nearly 1 win over 100% David Pauley pitching the same 50 innings. Regardless of how you feel about Erik Bedard that should at least give a tiny bit of hope that the Mariners could potentially pull out a .500 season. YAY, hope springs eternal!

As a side note I based Mariners win totals off my Mariners roster projection you can find here. This isn’t to spit in Keiths’ eye, as we have nearly identical projections, rather it’s just to give you the information behind the projection.

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Tags: Erik Bedard Jeremy Bonderman Kevin Millwood

  • Keith Myers

    my eye! my eye! how could you spit… Sorry, couldn’t help it. Perhaps I should leave the joking to when I’ve had more sleep.

    Erik Bedard was on my mind this morning already before I woke up and read this. I want to believe that he’ll be a starter and help the team will help them win, but i just don’t want to be fooled again. What’s the saying fool me 3 times, shame on you, fool me 4 or more times… or something like that…

    • Harrison Crow

      Haha! I was saying the same thing, and then suddenly Baker reports he’s throwing bullpen sessions. I suddenly realized how little it took for me to get sucked back in.

  • http://Retired maqman

    It’s hard not to get a little buzz just thinking about what he might be capable of doing for the team. After last season most of us have had an optimismectomy that renders us almost incapable of believing such a thing could happen, but it could. That’s neat!

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