Out of the last 13 months at my own blog and all the many different posts I’ve written about the minor league, I’ve never written anything about Dustin Ackley. This just seems rather wrong.
So while playing around with Fangraphs I got to looking at Dustin Pedroia, who I’ve always thought was a better comparison for Ackley than Chase Utley. Which was then followed by a trip to Baseball-Reference.
Below is a small comparison of some of their minor league statistics from B-R.
|Pedroia||21||51||240||255||356||382||738||1 of 1||24||17|
|Ackley||22||52||237||274||338||439||776||2 of 3||20||38|
|Utley||23||125||534||263||352||461||813||8 of 11||46||89|
Something to consider as you look at the chart above Ackley was promoted to AAA his first season of professional baseball. Both Pedroia and Utley were in their third year as a minor leaguers. Both saw their careers start in A ball and worked their way up.
I’m sure I’m not the first person to put this together. But, I just hadn’t seen it anywhere. I personally like the Pedroia comparison for Ackley opposed to Utley.
With those minor league numbers in mind, I thought I’d take a look at the Major League Equivalents using projectionist Sean Smiths’ formula and calculator.
While it’s a little sad to see, it’s not completely off either. Take a look at Utley and Pedroia’s first season/taste of the big leagues below.
|First full Season||Name||AB||BA||OBP||SLG|
It shows how there is an adjustment time for these young players. I would like to take this time just to remind people that Ackley is going struggle. Write this down now and take it to the bank. He’s most likely not going to hit .335 and be named to an all-star team. But, he still has a bright future. Don’t automatically just throw him into the “he will never hit” Mariner prospect category.