How good are the 2011 Mariners?

I had an interesting result when I looked at trying to figure out a prediction for the 2011 Mariners based on the players on the roster. First, last week I tried to predict the roster, and that wasn’t easy.  I did this prediction based on last week’s results, so I know that this endeavor is already flawed, so lets not belabor that point.

What I got was a 2011 M’s team that is likely to win more games then most of us think. Going off of 2010 performance, the 2011 M’s should win 76 games. 2011 predictions for player performance lead to a win total of 85 wins. This was taken from Fangraph’s predictions for players (mostly the fan predictions, though I used Bill James’s when available.)

I’m going to save interpretation of this result for a later post, but I’m still interesting in hearing what you all have to say about it. Please post your thoughts in the comment thread.

See below for the table of how this was determined.

Player 2010 WAR 2011 Prediction
Ichiro 4.8 4.1
Gutierrez 2.3 3.5
Saunders .3 1.6
Smoak 2.2 2.2
Ryan 1 1.6
Wilson 0 .3
Figgins .6 3
Olivo 3.2 1.6
Cust 2.4 1.6
Moore -1 .6
Bradley -.1 1
Kennedy 1 1
Gerut 0 0
Felix 6.2 6.4
Vargus 2.6 2.6
Fister 2.9 2.9
Pineda 0 0
French -.2 .7
Aardsma .2 .9
League .4 1
Cortez .1 1
Lueke 0 0
Kelley -.3 0
Robles 0 0
Olson -.2 0
Bedard 0 0
Ackley 0 0
Total: 28.4 37.6

There are a couple technical notes I should point out. First, all the rookies, who thus didn’t help in 2010 and had no WAR to use were also given a 0 prediction for 2011. I think this is fair, even for Ackley and Pineda. You never know how a rookie is going to perform, no matter the talent level, so assuming that all the rookies balance out close to 0 is pretty safe. I also put Erik Bedard at 0. Quite frankly, if Bedard manages to throw one pitch for the M’s it would seem to defy the odds. Feel free to disagree with that if you chose. I actually hope I’m wrong there.

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  • Chad

    I am curious as to why so many players, are projected to be significantly worse than last year. Such as Figgins, it seems as if he would only improve with the position change. I am not very familiar with sabermetrics, which hinders my ability to completely understand what you have put together here. I appreciate everyone’s work here, and I thoroughly enjoy reading it. It is a very unique site, which not only breaks news, but gives you stories here and there. Great work guys.

  • Chad

    I would also love to hear your thoughts on Pineda. Many say that the Mariners will send him to AAA for the start of the season, due to the fact that they would then control until the 2017 season (I believe so anyway). I believe that I read your roster article last week, and you projected for him to start the season with the Mariners. Regardless, how do you guys see him performing during his first year in the big leagues. I am so ecstatic, to see how he performs this year.

    Sorry for all of the questions. My last one would be……Do you know of anywhere that I can find videos of Michael Pineda. I have found a few on youtube, but they are all very boring clips of Pineda’s windup in slow motion. Lameeee

  • Keith Myers

    These are some great questions Chad!
    I’ll type up a response to all of them tonight and tomorrow and hopefully you some useful info.

  • Zach

    I see both Smoak and Cust doing more than the predictions suggested.

  • Tacoma Rain

    It appears to me that Figgins is actually predicted for an extreme increase in his numbers from last year – 0.6 growing to 3.0 wins. I hope he has that season, but it is agressive IMO. Further, expecting relievers to be worth 1.0 wins is aggressive as well IMO. Lastly, I really hope you are correct that Bradley, French, Kennedy and Ardsma all have productive seasons, but unfortunately that would be hard to believe IMO.
    However, I greatly appreciate the effort and for putting these numbers in print. It does appear that the M’s should have a better year than last, and hopefully continue to build for 2012.

  • Chad

    Oh yeah, I apologize. I didn’t notice the period, before the six.

  • Pingback: Looking at the 2011 win projection (part 1) « SoDo Mojo | A Seattle Mariners Blog