Predicting the 25 man roster

I sat down today to try and put together a prediction of how the 2011 season was going to go using individual player WAR values from 2010 and the Bill James predictions for 2011. The problem I ran into was that I first had to figure out who was going to end up on the 25 man roster in order to do so.  So I figured I’d post what I was thinking for how the roster might shape up and get the input from everyone who reads this blog. The 2011 projection will have to come later. Obviously, any deals or roster moves that happen between now and the start of the season aren’t included. I’m trying to use the players on the current roster, not trying to predict what Zduriencik still has up his sleeve.

Starters:

RF Ichiro
CF Gutierrez
LF Saunders
1B Smoak
2B Ryan
SS Wilson
3B Figgins
C Olivo
DH Cust

Bench:

Moore
Bradley
Kennedy
Gerut

Rotaion:

Felix
Vargas
Fister
Pineda
French

Bullpen:

Aardsma
League
Cortez
Lueke
Kelley
Robles
Olson

I don’t think there’s any surprises in the starters or 4/5 of the rotation. I think Pauley instead of French is a definite possibility, but they’re both replacement level players so it wont effect the projections that I’m working on.

As you can see, I think the non-roster veterans Gerut and Kennedy will make the team over Langerhans and Josh Wilson. In fact, if I had to guess, I’d say that those 2 are likely the players cut in order to get Kennedy and Gerut on the roster. The bench as I have it does present some noticeable ploblems, but I have a hard time seeing it shake out much different while Bradley is on the team. Now is the M’s cut him as I’ve seen speculated might happen, then things could end up being very different.

The bullpen is always impossible to predict. I’ve got 3 rookies in the pen, so this is probably incorrect, but it’s the most talent out of the players available so I’ll leave it for now.

I also think we can count on Jack Wilson spending significant time on the DL and Dustin Ackley getting the 2nd half of the season at 2B.

Well everyone, how did I do? Do you see it unfolding differently?

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  • http://Retired maqman

    Your guesses are as good as mine. I doubt Bradley will break camp with the team, if he ever gets there. I also hold out some hope Bedard will be able to pitch this season. My outlier to make the bullpen roster is Tom Wilhelmsen. Who knows what the Z has up his sleeve? It will be fun to see it unfold.

  • Keith Myers

    Good point there. I’d completely forgotten to take Bedard into account. I’ll have to see what i can find about his current health status.

  • http://Retired maqman

    If Bedard can join the rotation he’ll be second only to Felix, for as long as he lasts. If his medical record is nightmarish the good part is his arm has not had much wear, although too much tear, for his age. If he’s finally got things fixed he should last a while.

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