There’s really no other way to put it. The Mariners got beaten by their starting pitcher’s performance today…scratching out four runs against Liriano and Minnesota’s staff is no easy task for an offense like this. But, quite simply, what we had been expecting from Fister all year had happened. Fister’s tiny .29 HR/FB rate was never going to last, no matter how much luck he had. Sadly, regression hit him hard in the face today as he allowed three longballs, two of them of the back-to-back, no-doubt variety. Fister was running a 4.27 xFIP coming into this game. When regressing his home run luck, we can probably say that is about what we can expect going forward from him. He’s a decent back-end starter and a fringe mid-rotation starter, but tonight was just a reminder of why results based analysis is silly. Fister pitched like we should expect him to every few starts tonight.

Tags: Doug Fister Francisco Liriano XFIP

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