Casey Kotchman And The Unlucky Bounce

Per the inimitable Fangraphs.

Casey Kotchman 2010 vs. average  as of 05/11/10:

                 BB%         K%         BB/K     AVG   OBP     SLG      OPS      ISO      BABIP    wOBA
Casey     8.6 %    14.6 %      0.67     .194     .276    .379    .655        .184      .198    .287
Avg.         9.4 %    20.8 %      0.51     .263   .331     .405     .736       .148      .296     .327


Many expressed concern when he was acquired that Casey Kotchman would GIDP his way into disappointment and revulsion. Instead, Casey Kotchman started the year as Hephaestus, firing our hopes and dreams in the forges of the Gods. He hit the ball in the air and with power despite his debilitating handicap (see picture). He allayed many fears and allowed our Sauron-esque blogsphere eye to turn to more important matters such as Bradley-tantrums and Griffey-naps.  After that start though…

                  Mar/Apr        May
GB/FB        1.41               3.25
BABIP        .242              .050

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Also of note so far this year:

                                    Ground Balls     Liners        Fly balls
Kotchman BABIP        .114                 .421             .174
Avg.  BABIP                  .245                 .719            .134

Yes, Kotchman has returned to his wormburning ways and his BABIP has suffered. However the ground balls alone don’t account for such a drastic reduction in his BABIP. Especially the BABIP on line drives. So yes, be concerned. His ground balls are up. Keep a wary eye. But! Keep this in the back of your mind. Casey Kotchman had been VERY unlucky and it’s not solely due to an increase in groundballs. Expect regression and when it comes, hey, Casey might get back to average production. Not pantheon-worthy but average. And in this offense, wouldn’t that be something?

Tags: Casey Kotchman Mariners

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