My guess is that most of you already know all of this, as from what I’ve seen we have pretty intelligent readers here at SoDo Mojo, so feel free to disregard this message if it’s stuff you’re well aware of.
I’ve recently been disturbed to learn the fact that there are still Mariners fans out there, who are advocating the re-signing of Jarrod Washburn. If Jack Zduriencik has a brain in his head, and he’s made it pretty clear that he does, it’s not going to happen. Not only is Washburn an aging, mediocre, and in all likelihood, overpriced, back of the rotation starter – but he also now has a pretty severe knee injury to recover from.
I always learned in school, that when writing a persuasive essay, I should always look at the other end’s point of view – so let’s take a look. I’m seeing a lot of people citing his ERA and WHIP. At this point in my blogging career, I truly feel as though I shouldn’t have to explain why this is awful reasoning anymore. I’ve done it a hundred times, to a hundred different people. Alas, I’ll do it one more time. Both ERA and WHIP are bad statistics because there are too many factors that influence them, which they don’t take into account. Things like park factors, defensive range, and even luck influence them greatly – none of which are included in calculation. They don’t come close to telling the whole story, and that’s why they suck.
Jarrod Washburn’s 2009 season is a perfect example. His ERA was good. His WHIP was good. He wasn’t good. His numbers looked shiny because he had an excellent defense behind him, and he was pitching at Safeco Field. Some would argue that if he could benefit from those things in 2009, he could do it again in 2010. That’s a fair point, but there are a few differences. Jarrod Washburn was already under contract in 2009 – we had him, we had already paid for him, so we were stuck with him. That isn’t the case this year – he isn’t our problem anymore, and it would be foolish to spend money on him, when we have several of what are essentially younger versions of him.
To name only a few of our younger, cheaper, middle-back of the rotation starters: Ryan Rowland-Smith, Jason Vargas, Doug Fister, Garrett Olson, Luke French. Put two out of those five behind either Felix, Snell, and Morrow, or Felix, Harden, and Snell, or any other potential top three you want to imagine, and you have yourself a decent rotation. We DO NOT need to go out and spend money on Jarrod Washburn.
He is 35 years old. He is below average. He has a bad knee injury. He is overpriced. We don’t need him.
Seriously, what else do you need to know?
Call to the Pen
FanSided
Halo Hangout
Nolan Writin'
Swingin' A's
Amen brotha
Jack Zduriencik is a smart man. We won’t need to worry about this.
Agreed…..
Seeing as how the Marlins are looking to trade both Dan Uggla and Jorge Cantu, why not trade the Marlins Lopez and a couple of prospects for Cantu and Nolasco.
Do you think they would go for that, and do you like that trade?
Yeah, this isn’t a concern. Previous M’s regimes would have brought him back for “veteran leadership” and “playoff-tested intangibles” but as you say Jack Z has a brain in his head. Wash isn’t coming back.
Dan Uggla had a -10.1 UZR. We can do better. Sure, he’d make a nice DH, but that’s beside the point. Additionally, Cantu’s UZR was -0.3 at first base and -5.4 at third. Defense matters more than you think.
I wasn’t saying trade for Uggla, I was saying trade for Cantu but not Uggla. I was simply saying that the Marlins are going to shop him around and that they will need a second basemen which is where Lopez comes in. We could then sign Felipe Lopez or Orlando Hudson as brought up before to take J Lopez’s spot.
On defense: Cantu and Uggla had fantastic offensive seasons, and yet were worth 1.6 and 2.9 WAR respectively. To put it a different way, Jose Lopez was better than Dan Uggla in 2009. Instating Uggla at second base would be a downgrade overall, and that’s not the Zduriencik way.
Again, I didn’t say we should acquire Uggla haha.
Oh, whoops. Sorry, Chad. But still, we want nothing to do with Cantu. If the M’s are going to make a play for Nolasco, so be it. We do not want Cantu.
Oh alright, I thought it looked like a good fit, but I don’t understand the in depth stats quite that well yet. I feel as if we need one of those guys though. A guy who basically hits for doubles and line drives. The guys who seem to struggle hitting in safeco are right handed power hitters.
It appears that Edwin Jackson is going to be dealt by the Tigers. Obviously I understand that it will probably take quite a bit to get him, but nothing like Felix would attract. Is that a move the Mariners would consider. A Felix/Jackson one two punch would be ridiculous. Am I missing some behind the scenes stat that makes Jackson not that great?
RICKY …NOLASCO…
You sadly agree with me within the article… never do I cite Washburn specifically for his ERA in anything I write… I cite the fact he thrives here…
http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlesports/archives/183971.asp
Even your own damn newspaper says it’s a good idea…
haha you guys are ridiculously high on Nolasco….for some reason I don’t see him as being that lights out pitcher. I’m not saying he isn’t, I just don’t see it. It all leads back to my lack of knowledge of sabermetrics.
Chad: with all respect, that is what it leads back to. The saber stats such as FIP and tRA tell us that Nolasco is great, while his ERA this year tells a different story. I would LOVE Nolasco on the M’s. What I have said all along is that I don’t think the Marlins FO is ignorant enough to undervalue him. If only he pitched for the Royals….
All right, you’ve convinced me, Chad. Here’s your Intro to Sabermetrics 101.
Nolasco strikes out an average of 9.49 batters every nine innings. That is extremely good. He posted a 4.11 tRA (which is pretty much ERA adjusted and neutralized for park factors and defense), which is also quite good. His FIP (another ERA-like tool) was 3.35; very, very good.
Basically, he was a very good pitcher, but an even unluckier one at that. For this reason, the Marlins are underestimating his value and he will be available for much less than what he’s actually worth. Make sense?
Yeah I got it…thanks
Another ERA like tool… geezes… your Sabermetrics are just a branch of the same damn stats Griff tries to call me out on…
Thats like saying i’m wrong for picking a Swisher over a Black n Mild…
“sighs”
Cigarettes are stupid
I second that
What do you think about the foxsports.com latest buzz thing saying that GMZ might be interested in Doug Davis? Wouldn’t be a very “sexy” acquisition.
That’s a signing I wouldn’t be a fan of. Really depends on whether you trust FIP or tRA more. FIP sees him as around average, tRA sees him as bad.
I would give more credibility to tRA, with the qualification that batted ball types (which are included in tRA) aren’t classified perfectly with the current systems. Still, it’s important to have some idea of what type of contact a pitcher allows, and tRA does that.
Andy, you cite plenty of bad stats in all of your articles. Also, Greg Johns is dumb.
Either way, I don’t want Doug Davis
What do you guys think of Saunders’ play thus far over on the cardenales
he’s showing some signs of improving albeit they are small…
from what i hear he is being more agressive at the plate and that was something they wanted to see more out of him.
I brought up the Nolasco idea on PI and JAC was not a big fan, citing him as a “No. 3 guy at best”
I disagree but take what you want out of that
Nolasco posted #2 type numbers in each of the last 2 seasons, and he’d certainly be our best option for the #2 spot if we signed him. I’m not sure how Jason figures that, I’ve gotta disagree with him there.
Jason Churchill is a great analyist, but there are always disagreements about player potential. There has been other past situations where I disagree with his assesment. I think I tend to side with Griffin on this one. He may not be an “Ace” but he has some electric stuff. I don’t think him filling a #2 slot is out of the question.
Couldnt agree more with you guys. I think Nolasco is clearly a solid #2 and would represent a significant upgrade to the M’s rotation