Chad, I started writing a post in reply to your comment and I just found that it turned out long…too long. Yes, I know. Surprise, Surprise.
For those that may have not caught what all went on in Taylor’s amazing post on hit f/x, Chad asked for our thoughts on Aroldis Chapman. Why not, the Chicago Tribune is now reporting that the Seattle Mariners are now entering the bidding war for his services. There are definitely a lot of thoughts to be had on this situation.
My opinion is much like that of what Taylor expressed. Chapman himself is so unbelievably raw I would think he would end up in high A ball or, best case scenerio, AA West Tennessee. This is just my personal opinion; I could be completely wrong on this assessment
Now from where ever they start him the organiztion can permote him through the system as he shows he has the ability, the knowledge and the emotional poise to take on a further challenges. He is only 21, and he has just left his home and his “support net” (family and friends) behind.
The following is just some links I found that may help you out, just some easy surface level stuff that I found pretty quickly. All good reads take your time and let me know what you think.
Seattle’s sports insider had a great article on him here, also there is another great posts on yet another notable Seattle blog, called USS Mariner.
BtB has a cool graph on Chapman and how he compares (velocity wise) to other starters in the Majors.
Hardball Times has a good post about Chapman during the WBC
Finally, you really need it to look at the stats which you can reference world baseball classic stats here 2009 and for the cuban league which you can normally get through Baseball-Reference. I would also take a look at the work that Baseball Prospectus did.
*Taylor’s Edit* Chapman is in a somewhat similar position as that of Stephen Strasburg. Both have undeniably filthy pure stuff, but neither of the pair is actually major-league-ready at the moment. Problem is, they’re hot commodities right now, and the Nats/whoever Chapman goes to are going to want a polished starting pitcher right now. Give Chapman 8-10 minor league starts in AAA, let him work on his command, solidify his mechanics, and adjust to the ways of MLB, and you’ve got yourself (in the best possible scenario) a slightly overpriced 3-4 WAR pitcher for the next 4-5 years. If I was in Jack Zduriencik’s shoes right now, I would spend my time and money trying to acquire someone like Ricky Nolasco as opposed to an unknown quantity like Aroldis Chapman.
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Thanks for replying
No problemo… not a real busy night, had too much time on my hands.
I didn’t quite get across exactly how I feel about Jack Wilson. I wouldn’t say that I would be disappointed about him being our SS next season, I would just be upset if Z was dumb enough to pay him 8 million. The thing I would mostly be upset with is the fact that Z intends to field a younger and more talented team for years to come, but getting Jack Wilson does neither in my opinion.
I understand that he is a great defender, but we had a great defense this past year and that didn’t bolster us into the playoffs. Depending on how this off season plays out, I am not sure if we are quite capable of making the playoffs yet. I would sure as hell love for us to, but I think that after reading many bloggers opinons such as; USSMariner.com, this site, Brock and Salk, thenewstribune.com, mike sando, and many others I believe that we are not quite there yet. I am not going to get friendly replies after this comment from any of you guys, but it’s just how I feel.
I understand there are many reasons for why I am wrong, but again that is just how I see it. Now, if Jack Z does intend on fielding a younger team, then how does Jack Wilson fit into that plan. What I am really trying to get at is the fact that you have to have balance. You cannot have all defense and zero offense because it will end up in a season in which the Mariners just had. Defense is fantastic, but in the end the offense has to step up and score some runs.
I am still on a slightly pissed off mood because of the Seahawks game and the fact that I haven’t heard any mariners news in over a month besides the Mariners signing Brumley to be the third base coach. I will be much more optimistic about there chances once I settle down haha.
Post updated!
I think that Jack Z needs to make that one big trade this off season that makes you think WOW!!! I don’t have any clue of what it could be, but if he does intend on making this organization a success now and for the future (which obviously he does), then I feel as if he needs to make that one big move that gets you really hyped up. You know what I mean?
I already offered my opinion that that one big move should be to bring in Prince Fielder. That was shot down by this site. He is the kind of player that you can build and entire team around. He could single handily change the offense on this team. It seemed as if Branyan was always hitting solo homers or with only one guy on base. With ichiro constantly getting on and Gutierrez coming on as a possible number two hitter, Fielder is the kind of player we need who we know will hit a three run homer or a double. We don’t have that young impact player and we need one to be a legitimate team. Fielder brings the offense from the left side of the plate, the young age, and the defense to be a perfect fit for Safeco. He will require lots of money and prospects if we were to get him. This is just a theory and it really doesn’t matter what I say, but what if we were to pickup Chapman (hoping that he is who everyone thinks he is), trade Felix to the Brewers for Fielder and Escobar seeing as how they need pitching. Just a theory but hey you never know
Chad, you seem to be under the impression that the M’s need a “Big Name Player” to be successful.
Read this: http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2009/10/16/1088675/the-brilliance-of-jack-zduriencik
Now tell me if you still retain that belief.
No no no, that is not what I am saying at all. I am saying that you need that one player in your lineup in which you can count on to knock in those runs. That is what the number four hitter is all about. He is supposed to knock in the runs. If you believe that what I am describing is a “Big Name Player” then we do not see eye to eye. I am simply saying that when you think of a team, you think of a player. When you think of the Mariners currently, most people think of Ichiro. Ichiro can only do so much, he gets on base but we don’t have anyone to drive him in consistently. I understand that GMZ is a brilliant guy and he can find those guys who aren’t the most coveted players and turn them into stars, but that is besides the point. I did not say that he needs to go out and spend a bunch of money on free agents and that is how we are going to win. I simply think that we do need that player who is capable of driving in the 100+ RBI and the 30 or 40+ homers. I still believe that every great team in the majors has that one player that they built there team around. The Phillies have built theres around Ryan Howard and look what he does to there lineup. Once again, I was simply trying to get at the fact that the Mariners need an impact type of player on the offensive side of the ball. I don’t believe that the only way you can have success is to play Yankee ball. Trust me I hate that kind of baseball.
Having a bunch of journeymen type of players on your team leads to a bunch of fun, but not enough success. This past Mariners season proved that. I believe that if we would have had better offensive production by just a little bit, then we would have been in the playoffs. Prince Fielder or a player similiar to him can provide that
But I think that’s common knowledge. It’s no secret that the Mariners need to add offense to build on this season. I’d be absolutely shocked if Jack Z didn’t do something to bolster our lineup. But shortstop is not the position to look for an impact bat. We need to look for a good DH, like Nick Johnson, Carlos Delgado, or Jim Thome, re-sign Branyan, and see what we can do at third base and second base. JJ Hardy would be slightly better offensively than Wilson, but he’s far from the type of impact bat you’re describing.
I understand that Griffin, my past few comments haven’t been about Hardy at all. All of those guys that you have recommended such as a Nick Johnson, Carlson Delgado, Jim Thome, or even Branyan are all just fill in guys. We need to bring in some younger players. Now, I am not so naive as to believe that the Mariners will have a 100 win team with a bunch of 25 year old players and no one above that age, but I feel as if they do need to get a couple of those young studs. Once again, I understand that we have Ackley on his way and Saunders and Moore. I don’t want to be attacked over my opinion, I was simply just putting it out there, because I felt that that would be a great move for the Mariners. I think that the Mariners are going to have to give up some of there strength in order to get some offense.
Well, Nick Johnson is 30. That isn’t old enough, especially for a DH, that it should be prohibitive of a multi-year deal. Yes, the others would all likely be 1 year, 2 at the most, options, but you can’t just grab young impact bats. They don’t grow on trees. It would take a huge haul to land someone like Prince Fielder (we aren’t getting him and Escobar for Felix), and we don’t have the farm system or the depth to make that kind of a trade.
In all likelihood, whoever we do pick up this off season is going to come via signing, or trade on a much smaller scale. I think the people who are hoping for a huge trade or a big name signing this off season are going to be disappointed – fortunately, we don’t need either of those things to improve.
I still don’t understand the point in wasting money on a DH like Johnson or Branyan if we aren’t going to be serious contenders next year. It just seems like a waste when we could be using that money on players who will be here in 2 or 3 years when our prospects start to come arond
Chad, hear me out when I say this: the best way to build a successful baseball organization is to amass lots and lots of talent. It shouldn’t matter when we amass the talent — all that matters is that we do so at all. Was the Beltre signing a waste several years ago because we has signed a good player to a big contract despite the fact that we weren’t going to be that good?
Yeah, that sounds like a waste in my opinion. What is the point in wasting money on talent if your not going to be going anywhere. Ichiro is being paid 20 million a year to get on base so no one can drive him in YAY!!!!!
I want to apologize, I am being an ass. You guys are taking your time to answer the readers comments. Thanks, I am just frustrated because it seems as if no one is trying to see it from my point of view. My basic point is that we need offensive players who are going to be part of the future
Also, Chad, I don’t know where you’re getting that we aren’t going to be serious contenders next year. I see it as quite the contrary. We’re going to be building off of an 85 win team, and with a few selective upgrades, we’ll certainly be going into 2010 with a chance to contend. This is absolutely not an off season in which we can say “why spend the money, we aren’t going to contend?”.
We already have the foundation for a perennial contender. Our main focus right now needs to be getting ready to compete in 2010, without fucking up the future.
Well, if you look at Dave Cameron’s projections of how the players we have locked up for next year are likely to perform, it’s really more like a 75-78 win team based on projected WAR. That was the basis for Dave’s post about how the M’s need to gain about 15-20 WAR in the offseason to have a good shot at the playoffs.
So it really won’t be that easy, but like you guys have been saying there’s no reason that the WAR has to come from a few stars as opposed to a more even distribution (this would be where I cite Dave and Taylor’s posts on that topic). I still think Z is going to have to make some creative moves, moves that none of us would expect. But I am excited to see what happens and like everyone else I am jonesing for M’s news.
Yeah Greg, that’s correct. When you remove the players that we don’t have locked up, we’re building off a 75-78 win team. Still though, it’s way too early to decide that we aren’t going to contend.
I believe that we are not contenders because it seems as if many people are banking on Saunders, Tui, and Moore/Johnson to have break out years with the stick. I think that is a wee bit too much to bet our money on for a successful season. On Dave’s roster, he has all 4 of those guys starting. I don’t believe that Jose Lopez will be here by the start of next season, and I don’t see Gutz, Ichiro, Branyan if resigned, and Jack Wilson as enough offense to pick up those young guys lack of production.
There’s no reason to think those guys, excluding Johnson, won’t give us some decent offensive production this year. None of them are raw talents waiting to break out – they’re good to go. If Jose Lopez isn’t here next year, we’ll have replaced him with someone who can hit. We aren’t just going to lose his production without replacing it.
Jack Z still has a lot of time to make moves for the 2010 season, and I still stand by the fact that it’s really silly to write us off at this point.
I can not describe why I feel as if we are not going to be serious contenders through sabermetrics because I don’t fully understand them as of know. I simply go off of WAR and my knowledge of watching and seeing how players perform. I understand that that does not give a person an in depth look at how a player performs, but that is what I know for now. Based off of my knowledge, I don’t believe we are a 90+ win team. You say that we don’t have any depth in our farm system to make any good moves, which would imply that we cannot bring in any serious help (as in players who are good right now and major league ready). As of right now we have one player who ha a BA of .300+ and we all know that was Ichiro. Now, I am not implying that we need 9 guys who can for an average of .300+ for us to be great, I just feel as if we need atleast 4 or 5 guys who are going to bat for atleast an average of .270 and if they aren’t going to maintain that sort of average then they should be able to draw walks or be a Mark Reynolds kind of hitter. I know that I am describing a team that is probably very unrealistic, but that is what I feel we need. Currently, we have a very bad offensive team as you guys already know. We don’t have many patient hitters and we don’t have many guys who can hit 20+ homers. This all leads back to the beginning where I said that we need a guy who can knock in those guys on second and third with 2 outs by cranking a homer out of the park. I may sound dumb to you guys, but the offense needs an upgrade. You guys have already made it clear that everyone understands this.
No, the entire team needs to be upgraded. Remember the wise words of Zduriencik: an upgrade in one place and a loss in another is NOT an upgrade overall if the two cancel each other out. Think about replacing Mike Cameron with a a guy with a slightly better bat and far worse defense. The Mariners will continue to improve, but it doesn’t necessarily have to be on the offensive end. However, that certainly is the place where the M’s need the biggest upgrade.
Let’s just wait and see what happens instead of arguing over nothing.
I didn’t say we’re a 90+ win team right now, but you’re forgetting that it’s November 2nd. This team is going to look a whole lot different come spring training.
I also didn’t say we have no depth in the minor leagues, I said we don’t have the type of depth to land someone like Prince Fielder without depleting our whole farm system. There’s a big difference.
Look…everyone blew this way out of proportion in the first place. I just wanted to give you guys my opinion which is what I did. I didn’t come on here to argue with you guys. I never accused you Griffin of saying that we were a 90+ win team although I did assume that you meant we did not have depth in the farm system at all to make any sort of transaction. I apologize for that. I said I believe we are not a 90+ win team yet because I was implying that I believe that the Angels will be a 90+ win team next year and that is what we will need to be to contend. I understand that you don’t think that the Angels will be a 90+ win team next year, but that is how I feel. I will just keep how I feel the Mariners will perform to myself next time. Sorry about that.
Chad I think your having a hard time realizing that upgrades could even be made to the starting pitching, bullpen, and defense that would make the M’s a better team than 2009. With that said, everyone knows the offense needs an upgrade. However, don’t just think that if significant offensive upgrades are not made(even though I think upgrades will be made)that this team cant contend or wont be improved over the 2009 team.
You guys chill out pouncing down on me. I understand baseball and I understand what you guys are trying to say. You guys don’t have to continue to reword the exact same things. I really am sorry if I am coming off as a complete ass right now. I am not being sarcastic, I really am sorry. I am not trying to act like a little baby by walking around pouting because everyone does not agree with my theory. I have said before that I understand that EVERYONE who is a Mariner fan or who follows the Mariners knows that we need help on offense. Of course I understand that defense can improve this team, but I still am waiting for someone to acknowledge the fact that there are players out there who can hit and play defense. I am tired of hearing these suggested players who are all defense and no offense such as Hannahan. All I am saying is that I believe we need some sure fire hitters.
Mike….I am not having a hard time realizing that upgrades can be made to improve this team from the 09 version. I completely understand that pitching wins games which has been said for years. Regardless of how good your pitching is, you have to score runs (Again, everyone knows that we need offense). The Giants along with ourselves had some of the best pitching and defense in the league and look who is in the World Series…the Phillies and Yankees. In my opinion the Phillies had a successful season due to the offensive support, not because they had the best pitching in the NL. The Phillies blew 22 leads from the 7th inning on this season (that’s pretty garbage). I am willing to see your guys points, but chill the hell out on me. I just wanted to come and give my damn ideas.
I might be totally off on this, but does Saunders have a chance to be a Utley kind of power player. There swings are sort of similiar
Chad – I think you’re taking this a little bit too personally. None of us are trying to attack you. A big part of this blog is discussion, and that’s what we’re having. It just happens to be 3-4 people on one side, and just 1 on the other, which is why it’s probably coming off as all of us pouncing on you. I didn’t say the Angels won’t be a 90+ win team next year – they probably will be, but my point is it’s way too early to concede that we won’t be. Upgrades need to be made. We can all agree on that – and offense is one of them. Jack Z isn’t going to just sit there – plenty of moves are going to be made between now and March, and that’s why we can’t sit here in November and talk say we are or aren’t going to contend.
You’re right though – a team needs offense to win too, not just defense. I guarantee you Jack Zduriencik knows that, and aside from re-signing Felix, I bet you gaining some offense is going to be his top priority this off season. One thing you should keep in mind, though, is that saving a run is equally as good as scoring a run, and defense is absolutely going to remain the foundation of this team.
We’ve all acknowledged that there are players who can hit and play defense – but getting them isn’t so simple. We’ll go after them, but if you go into this off season expecting to land Prince Fielder, and are going to be disappointed with anything less…. well… you’re probably going to be disappointed.
The offense is going to improve between now and 2010, but it’s going to be marginal improvements. Going for the big name, power hitter free agents, or blockbuster trades just doesn’t make sense for this team right now – unless of course we end up having to trade Felix. That would change everything.
As for the Phillies, their offense was really good, but the fact that their 1-2 punch during the second half of the season was Cliff Lee – Cole Hamels certainly didn’t hurt – especially in the playoffs. The reason they blew so many leads late in games this season was because of a shitty bullpen, not a bad rotation.
Ok. About Saunders – Yes, he could grow into a poor man’s Utley, potentially, with significantly less power.
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I’m actually thinking that Ackley is the one who would end us as a poor man’s Utley.
Well, Ackley and Saunders are similar types of hitters, with Ackley being significantly better obviously. Both are likely to be 15-20 HR guys with decent gap power. Saunders could be the really poor man’s Utley, and Ackley could just be the poor man’s Utley.