My guess is that by now, pretty much all of you have read Dave Cameron’s 2010 off season plan over at USS Mariner. He did a fantastic job on it overall, and clearly put a lot of work into it. One signing he advocated was Orlando Hudson, to play second base(assuming Jose Lopez gets traded). Now, Hudson would definitely be a good fit in Seattle. He’s a switch hitter, which is something we most certainly could use, he’s an adequate defensive second baseman, and he’s a well above average hitter. Dave figures it would take about $8m per year to sign him, which sounds about right.
So we know Hudson would be a solid fit – but there’s one other player, a guy by the name of Felipe Lopez, who potentially could make even more sense. Lopez has played a fair amount of both second base and shortstop, but UZR likes him much more at second base. Defensively, he’d probably just be a slight improvement over Jose Lopez – he’s got decent range, but makes his fair share of errors. Not much different than Orlando Hudson.
Offensively is where Felipe has shined over his career, though. Some point to his outstanding 2009 season being somewhat of a fluke, but when you track back over the last few years, it seems far from it. His wOBA’s since 2005, in which he’s had at least 480 at bats every season, are as follows:
2009: .356 (.329 league average)
2008: .320 (.328 league average)
2007: .295 (.331 league average)
2006: .336 (.332 league average)
2005: .360 (.326 league average)
With 2007 as a bit of an outlier, he’s been pretty consistent. His power is nothing special – he hit 23 home runs in 2005, but it looks like that was a factor of his extremely high 18.3% HR/FB, as he hasn’t hit more than 11 in a season since.
Despite the lack of power, he’d fit nicely into this Mariners lineup in the same way Orlando Hudson would – he’s a switch hitting middle infielder, with above average speed and a good, consistent bat. The biggest difference between the two? Money. Lopez would probably demand something in the range of $5-7 million per year, compared to the $8-9 it would most likely take to land Hudson.
Not a huge difference, but that extra $1-4 million could be used for a lot of different things – whether it’s re-signing Russell Branyan, bringing in a FA pitcher, or even attempting to bring back Adrian Beltre.
If we for whatever reason don’t go after Lopez, and we end up with Orlando Hudson instead, there’s absolutely nothing wrong with that, but I for one, would love to see Felipe Lopez in a Mariners uniform.
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I thought about Lopez when I read Cameron’s piece.
I would much rather save some money and sign Felipe than spend that much on Hudson.
I thought about this as well a couple of weeks ago and I love the idea. Either one is great, but I would prefer Lopez as well
To be fair, his 2009 season WAS a little flukey. He’s probably not going to run another .360 BABIP, even if he somehow maintains the 22.3% LD rate he had. I would expect his walk rate to regress a little bit as well, based on the fact that it increased this year despite his O-Swing% and overall Swing% also having increased.
Let’s not forget also that 2007 and 2008 both were nearly replacement-level seasons for him, despite having played in the NL. Overall, I feel like there’s a lot more risk with Felipe, and the extra money we might pay Hudson would be like a risk premium.
That’s true, but not only does 2007 look like quite an outlier, one could also argue that he’s just entered his prime over the last year or so. We have to keep in mind that he’s only 29, and coming off a 4.6 win season. You’re probably right in the fact that he’s due for BABIP regression, but I would still expect him to be a 1.5-3 win player in 2010, at least.
He would be somewhat of a risk, though.
I tend to agree with Griffin, yes there is some risk associated with Felipe Lopez (he’s not going to be an average 4 WAR player), but he has proven that he has made the adjustments to be an above average ball player.
“but I would still expect him to be a 1.5-3 win player in 2010, at least.”
-That’s a pretty wide range. He could be excellent, or he could be a win worse than Jose Lopez. Again, that’s why Hudson is worth more right now. You have a way better chance of predicting what you’ll get from him. And Felipe’s 2007 may have been an outlier, but what about 2008? He wasn’t much better (0.8 WAR) that year. The trouble is, with his WAR inconsistency and a league change on top of it, we really have little to no idea how he would perform in Seattle, which leads to my next point.
Looking at Dave Cameron’s plan, there are already plenty of risks built in there. Think about it: if the team follows something even close to Dave’s plan, what will that mean in terms of risk? Signing a pitcher like Sheets? Risk. Starting Moore, Saunders, and Tui? Risk, risk, and risk. It seems to me that Dave understands a team needs to balance risk with some higher-probability players if it is going to have a decent chance of succeeding. Some of a team’s risks are going to fail.
“but he has proven that he has made the adjustments to be an above average ball player.”
-I mean this seriously, because I don’t know: what did he adjust? Is his swing different? I’ve barely ever seen him play so I really don’t know.
After looking at it more closely, primarily his BABIP’s in ‘07 and ‘08, it looks less like ‘07 is an outlier, and look more like he had bad luck in 2007, and just hadn’t his stride yet in either year.
When you look a little deeper, 2005 looks more like the outlier here – a year in which he was quite lucky in general, with a high HR/FB % and a high BABIP. And if that’s the case, and 2005 was more of a factor of luck, while ‘06-08 were closer to his true talent, ‘09 is really tough to peg.
It could be another case of having a lot of good luck (the .360 BABIP certainly suggests it), or it could be him entering his prime and reaching his potential. That’s where the risk is – it’s really tough to tell. So yeah, you’re right, he is risky, and you bring up a valid point about the other big risks we’re probably going to be taking in 2010.
What it comes down to, is whether or not Felipe Lopez makes sense, really depends on what other moves are made. So, as it is with everything right now, we’ll just have to wait and see.