Most of the uncertainty surrounding the 2010 Mariners is focused on the rotation, and because of this there hasn’t been a whole lot of talk about what the pen is going to look like. Much like there is an abundance of starting candidates, there is an abundance of relief candidates. The M’s are most likely going to carry 6 relievers – probably a closer, a setup man, 3 middle relievers, and a long relief/mop up guy.
David Aardsma celebrates after a win, but at the same time contemplates how to avoid the dreaded Rob Johnson hug
Let’s assume for this that Carlos Silva is going to get another shot at the starting rotation out of the gate – and for the money we’re paying him, he probably will. So what’s the bullpen going to look like?
Mop up/Long relief: Chris Jakubauskas
This spot is going to be tough to predict, as there are probably going to be at least 3 or 4 guys vying for one spot. Not only that – but we don’t even know which guys those are going to be yet. If it were to come down to Jak and Olson, though, unless Olson can seriously improve his command between now and 2010, Jakubauskas would be the best option. He’s done a decent job of mop up this season, and I don’t think there’s any chance of him being in the rotation next year. Either way, the Mariners shouldn’t have any trouble finding someone for this role.
Middle Relievers: Sean White, Shawn Kelley, Joshua Fields
White should be a lock given the way he’s pitched this year, and the same goes for Kelley if he’s deemed healthy. The third spot is where it gets foggy – there are other candidates, such as Randy Messenger, Chad Cordero, Mike Koplove, to name a few, but I expect one of Fields/Aumont to earn a spot. Fields probably has a better chance of being ready by 2010, but unless we trade Aardsma in the off season, he’ll probably be slid into a middle relief role for at least one season.
Setup: Mark Lowe
Lowe has pitched really well this year, and assuming we re-sign him, he’s all but guaranteed himself sole possession of the setup role in 2010. This year has been his best by far, posting a tRA under 4, and he probably has the best stuff in that bullpen right now. Having an eighth inning guy with a devastating slider and a fastball that can touch 100 is quite the weapon.
Closer: David Aardsma
Aardsma has gone from a journey man reliever to a shut down closer on a winning team in a matter of months. This season has brought life into his career, and assuming we don’t trade him between now and April, there’s no reason to think he won’t be right back into the closer role. He’s benefited from both pitching at Safeco, and pitching with our insane outfield defense behind him, but he’s still been really good. That 3.43 tRA pretty much says it all.
Our bullpen hasn’t been very good this season, but you’d be surprised at how much of a difference losing a guy like Miguel Batista makes. The relief core won’t be stellar in 2010, but it looks to be more than passable.
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That bullpen has a notable lack of southpaws
Yeah that is the one glaring problem, and because of that they could very well go with Olson or Vargas in the long relief role, or find a spot for Cesar Jimenez – I’m not sure how they’d go about doing that, though.
Is this OUR Corco? Boy, I sure hope so.
Olson’ll probably be the lefty. Jimenez sucks.
And in the case that Aardsma ever fails Lowe/Fields/Aumont will be there to fill that role. His fastball has been amazing this year but I’m always scared the one time they actually make contact on a fastball. But as long as it’s high and above their shoulders the Aardsma express won’t be so terrifying.
This is the corco corco, Taylor.
I’d imagine somebody from outside the org comes in to be the token short role lefty- Olsen is more of a long guy/starter, and like Taylor says Jimenez sucks.
In honesty I would expect one of Aardsma/Lowe to be traded over the offseason (Lowe especially), the rest of the guys you outlined would fill the pen, and then an NRI lefty to take the LOOGY spot
So you’re NOT corco?
I’d expect Aardsma to be traded over Lowe since Aardsma has gotten the “proven closer” tag while Lowe has got the set-up man one. And I trust Lowe’s stuff more than Aardy. Lowe would not gather much and might end up being a pretty damn good closer.
I also would be more inclined to think Aardsma is going to get traded – mainly because he probably has significantly more value right now on the trade market. Even though I really like what he’s done for us this year, I also feel like losing him would be a lot less painful to this bullpen than losing Lowe. I expect great things from Lowe next season.
Agreed. He has lots of “saves”, which significantly up his value. Sometimes it’s neat that baseball remains ignorant.
Just say no to Mike Koplove. I was not really impressed with what I saw out of him late in the year, but that’s based on vague numbers and visual performance only, so I always second-guess myself.
I have to be honest here, as much as my love for David Aardsma knows no bounds, it is simultaneously fleeting – he scares the crap out of me against some teams. I’d like to see him actually use some of his other pitches next year. Then again, he gets massive props for having the stones to pitch fastballs only straight down the middle to Vladimir Guerrero a few short days ago. Yikes!
I think when it comes to Aardsma terrifying us, we’re all right there with you Megan. He’s certainly not afraid to go after hitters, and because of that he’s been able to manage his walks (for the most part), but you’re right, he’s going to have a much better chance at pitching well again in 2010 if he doesn’t rely so heavily on his fastball, even though it’s a good pitch.
Aardsma has flashed a good split at times this year, so he could really up his profile if he’d use it more. He’s made it all year throwing high fastballs, but his 3.5 HR/FB% is ridiculous low and doesn’t seem like it will stand up. I’m surprised he’s made it through the whole season with a string of appearances that bump his ERA up a run or two.
Based on what we were hearing around the trade deadline, Mark Lowe may have more trade value than David Aardsma. Saves will bump a guys value up a bit, but most teams are smarter than that now. They know Lowe has better stuff. I’d like to see Aardsma dealt (assuming there are decent offers out there) and have Lowe slot into the closer role.
LOOGY candidates, if the team decides the no lefty experiment (for much of the season) of 2009 wasn’t a success: Garrett Olson (I think he could do really well in that role), Justin Thomas, Nick Hill. I think they’ll let Hill continue to develop as a starter, but my current feeling is that he’ll be a reliever in the long run (due to delivery, not stuff). We’ll see.
you wanted more comments … wow … great here they are!