Projecting the 2010 Rotation
One of the biggest questions surrounding the 2010 Mariners is and will continue to be starting pitching. The free agent class for starters is terrible, and assuming neither Jarrod Washburn or Erik Bedard re-sign with Seattle, we’re going to have to build the rotation from within.
There’s really only one given, and that of course is Felix Hernandez. As long as he doesn’t get traded in the off-season (not going to happen), he’s easily got the #1 spot locked down. After that, it’s a bit of a blur. The pitcher’s that may be competing for spots are going to be:
Ian Snell
Ryan Rowland-Smith
Luke French
Brandon Morrow
Doug Fister
Carlos Silva
Jason Vargas
Garrett Olson
Nicholas Hill
Hill is a bit of a darkhorse, but he’s putting up excellent numbers with double A, and has been for quite some time. Take him out and you still have 8 pitchers competing for 4 spots. RRS is in. He’s looked good consistently since transitioning into a starter, and there’s no reason to think he won’t get a spot to start the 2010 season.
Ian Snell should also be a given. He has the best stuff of the whole group, and if he can improve his command over the off season and spring, he shouldn’t have any trouble getting into the rotation. Brandon Morrow is in the same boat – he has great stuff, and the way he’s been working efficiently and using his off speed pitches makes me think he will also have no problem earning a spot.
So, plug those three in, and you have 5 or 6 more guys battling it out for 1 spot in the rotation. I don’t think it’s going to be Olson – he doesn’t have good stuff and he doesn’t throw strikes. With Silva, I just don’t see him ever returning to pre-Mariners form, and I expect him to take over Miguel Batista’s mop up role in 2010.
So that leaves French, Fister, and Vargas. I’m still not convinced that Fister is for real, so there’s a decent chance he’ll fade and we won’t hear about him again for awhile. I don’t see that happening with either French or Vargas though. What I’ve been saying for awhile now, is that French is basically a young version of Jarrod Washburn – and I still believe that. So he’s going to continue benefiting from Safeco, but I’m not sure how he’ll do in Spring Training.
For Vargas it’s going to be all about command – primarily keeping the ball down. He’s demonstrated this season how awesome his changeup is, but he isn’t overpowering, so hitting his spots is going to be imperative. When the battles are over and the dust has cleared, I see our 2010 rotation looking like this:
1. Felix
2. RRS
3. Morrow
4. Snell
5. French
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The Mariners have said to expresa lot of interest in resigning bedard for the backed of the rotation. Someone is going to get traded
August 23rd, 2009 at 1:23 amI’m sure they’re interested, but for one thing it’s unlikely that Bedard will be ready by the beginning of next season, and there’s no guarantee they’ll be able to reach a deal.
If you’re still thinking about that trade for Adrian Gonzalez involving Morrow – it won’t happen. Someone might get traded, but it won’t be that, and it won’t be Felix for Longoria.
August 23rd, 2009 at 1:27 amAgreed, but i must think that the recent trade of bill hall shows the Mariners are prepared to lose Adrian Beltre.
If that was infact the case, there could be an extra 10 millions dollars avilable for free agents. If we are going by Dave Camerons’ projection of the avilable 17 m$ for the Mariners.
Depending on how much Russell Branyan gets in free agency, as both Griffin and I dicussed previously, neither of us believe it will be more than 6m$ that could give upwards of 11m$ for any avilable free agent. With some internal options avilable at DH, Brad Nelson, Chris Shelton, ect … I would think that there is a small possiblity they would go after someone that could fill in as a #2.
I think guys such as Rich Harden or Josh Beckett aren’t anywhere on the avilable radar but someone like Justin Duchscherer or maybe someone else avilable that has that risk/reward factor, that Jack seems to love.
If Erik Bedard were to get a contract offer from the Mariners i wouldnt be surprised. But I really see Ben Sheets as a prime example of what could happen to Bedard. Speaking of which he wouldn’t be a bad move for this team. However, i do beleive Texas has alot of interest in him and with the new ownership taking over. There isn’t a way of telling how much money they will have at their desposal.
Someone that i would absloutely love to see the Mariners go after is Jamey Carrol. He is a solid ultility option with league average defense at a low cost. This would make Jose Lopez very expendable and possibly could bring in more speghetti for the walls.
August 23rd, 2009 at 2:03 am